乙二醇日报：乙二醇供给收缩支撑期价，关注库存累积压力-20260212

Group 1: Ethylene Glycol Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contract and Basis: The price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract rose from 3,938 yuan/ton to 3,975 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase The basis (spot price - futures price) widened from -318 yuan/ton to -325 yuan/ton, indicating a deeper futures premium [2][34] - Open Interest and Trading Volume: The trading volume of the main contract increased significantly by 31.39%, from 207,474 lots to 272,604 lots, while the open interest decreased by 2.55%, from 439,988 lots to 428,779 lots [2][35] Group 2: Industry Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate dropped 3.17 percentage points to 61.71%, mainly due to a 4.99 - percentage - point decline in the oil - based operating rate to 63.4%, while the coal - based operating rate remained stable at 52.53% Profits from various production processes generally deteriorated, with oil - based production profits dropping significantly, indicating increased raw material cost pressure and a greater risk of supply contraction [2][38] - Demand Side: The load of downstream polyester factories remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained stable at 63.43%, showing that overall demand had no significant change, indicating some resilience in terminal consumption but a lack of growth momentum [3][39] - Inventory Side: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased 4.24% to 935,000 tons, while the inventory in Zhangjiagang decreased slightly by 0.88% to 450,000 tons The overall inventory accumulation highlighted the pressure of oversupply, with more arrivals at the ports and insufficient demand digestion [3][39] Group 3: Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price may face medium - term downward pressure The short - term rise in futures prices is driven by market sentiment and active trading, and the decline in the supply - side operating rate and profit deterioration may continue to support high prices However, continuous inventory accumulation, lack of demand growth, and deep losses in cost - side profits will limit the upside space If inventory reduction is less than expected or cost pressure intensifies, prices may turn weak for adjustment [3]