白糖日报-20260212

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - International sugar prices are expected to remain weak in the short term. The price of the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to follow a weak trend due to the international sugar price breaking below the previous low [10]. - The Brazilian sugar's influence on the global market is decreasing as its cane - crushing is nearly finished and exports are declining. The market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere, where most sugar production is in an increasing cycle. India's sugar production may exceed expectations, putting downward pressure on international sugar prices [9]. - The domestic sugar market is in the peak crushing season, and the domestic sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, leading to some pressure on the supply side. Therefore, the Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar prices [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,259, down 16 (-0.30%) with a trading volume of 14,498 (an increase of 1704) and an open interest of 123,337 (an increase of 21); SR01 closed at 5,367, down 13 (-0.24%) with a trading volume of 423 (an increase of 164) and an open interest of 4,416 (an increase of 175); SR05 closed at 5,254, down 12 (-0.23%) with a trading volume of 146,436 (a decrease of 10,732) and an open interest of 443,331 (a decrease of 8,525) [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in various regions remained stable. The basis in Liuzhou was 116, in Kunming - 79, in Wuhan 366, in Nanning 106, in Bayuquan 181, in Rizhao 176, and in Xi'an 516 [3]. - Month - to - Month Spread: The SR05 - SR01 spread was - 113 (an increase of 1), the SR09 - SR05 spread was 5 (a decrease of 4), and the SR09 - SR01 spread was - 108 (a decrease of 3) [3]. - Import Profit: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3,725, and the out - of - quota price was 4,722, with a spread of 648 compared to Liuzhou and 708 compared to Rizhao. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3,716, and the out - of - quota price was 4,710, with a spread of 660 compared to Liuzhou and 720 compared to Rizhao [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information - In the 2025/26 sugar - making season as of February 10, Thailand's cumulative cane crushing volume was 57.5996 million tons, a decrease of 4.7877 million tons (7.67%) compared to the same period last year. The sugar content in cane was 12.45%, an increase of 0.15% compared to last year. The sugar production rate was 10.66%, an increase of 0.171% compared to last year. The sugar production was 6.1404 million tons, a decrease of 0.4035 million tons (6.17%) compared to last year [5]. - As of now, 2 sugar mills in Zhanjiang have finished crushing in the 2025/26 season, and 1 more is expected to finish before the Spring Festival. As of the end of January, Guangdong's cumulative sugar production was 0.3444 million tons, slightly higher than the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.827%, a decrease of 0.263% compared to last year. The estimated sugar production in Guangdong for the 2025/26 season is 0.6 million tons, lower than the previous season's 0.6545 million tons, and the production progress has reached about 60% [5]. - On the 12th, the spot prices of white sugar in the main production areas were basically stable, and the overall trading volume was average [6]. - Logical Analysis - Internationally, the influence of Brazilian sugar on the global market is decreasing, and the market's focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. India's sugar production may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. The US sugar price has broken below the support level and is expected to remain weak [9]. - Domestically, the sugar market is in the peak crushing season, and the domestic sugar production in this season is likely to increase significantly, bringing pressure on the supply side. Affected by the weakening international sugar price, the Zhengzhou sugar price is also expected to be weak [9]. - Trading Strategy - Single - side: The international sugar price is expected to be weak in the short term. Affected by the international sugar price breaking below the previous low, the price of the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to be weak [10]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [11]. - Options: Sell call options in the short term [12]. 3.3 Related Attachments The report includes multiple charts, such as the monthly inventory and production of sugar in Guangxi and Yunnan, the spot price of Liuzhou white sugar, the spot price difference between Liuzhou and Kunming, the basis of different contract months, and the price difference between different contract months [14][18][22].