棉花、棉纱日报-20260212

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current market contradictions are not significant. The previous expectation of a downward adjustment in the new - year cotton planting area has been reflected in the market. The cotton sales progress on the demand side is still fast, at a high level in the same period of previous years. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the short - term change in the demand side is expected to be small. Supported by market bullish factors, the cotton fundamentals still have certain support. It is expected that Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. - It is predicted that the US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Market Information - Futures Disk: The prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70; the prices of CY05 and CY09 contracts decreased by 45 and 25 respectively, while the CY01 contract had no trading. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also had different changes [2]. - Spot Price: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,967 yuan/ton, down 45; Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound, and the price of other spot products also had corresponding fluctuations [2]. - Price Difference: There were different price differences in cotton and yarn across different periods and varieties, and the price differences also had corresponding changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread was 530 with no change, and the CY05 - CF05 cross - variety spread was 5,750, up 25 [2]. Second Part: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On February 11, 2026, the Xinjiang - bound cotton road transport price index was 0.1402 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat month - on - month. It is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term [4]. - In September 2025, the EU's clothing import value was 21.699 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.21% and a month - on - month increase of 15.12%. In October, it was 20.407 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 3.93% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.95%. The overall import volume remained high, but the unit price continued to decline [4]. - In January, the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate of 90% and above was 44.74%, a decrease of 6.37 percentage points from the previous month; the proportion of enterprises with an operating rate between 61% - 89% was 36.84%, an increase of 7.95 percentage points. The proportion of enterprises with an increased cotton consumption was 31.58%, a decrease of 1.75 percentage points; the proportion of those with a decreased cotton consumption was 23.68%, an increase of 3.68 percentage points [5]. Trading Logic - With minor market contradictions, the previous expectation of a reduced cotton planting area has been reflected. The cotton sales progress is fast, but considering the Spring Festival, the short - term demand change is expected to be small. Supported by bullish factors, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is predicted that US cotton will likely fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and Zhengzhou cotton will also fluctuate within a range. One can consider building long positions on dips and hold light positions during the Spring Festival [7]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [8]. - Options: Wait and see [9]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has basically stopped, with only a small amount of goods moving in Xinjiang. Some spinning mills have raised their quotes, and inland spinning mills have started to have centralized holidays. The market for all - cotton grey fabrics has basically stopped, and most fabric mills have stopped quoting prices, with prices remaining stable for now [9]. Third Part: Options - Option Contract Data: On January 19, 2026, for options such as CF605C14600.CZC, CF605C14200.CZC, and CF605P13800.CZC, there were corresponding data on closing prices, price changes, implied volatility, etc [11]. - Volatility: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of different options was also provided [11]. - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.8667, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.4688. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. Fourth Part: Relevant Attachments - The report provides relevant figures such as the price difference of domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the price difference between CY05 and CF05, CY01 and CF01, and the price difference between CF9 - 1 and CF5 - 9 [14][18][23][25]