鸡蛋日报-20260212

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction. Therefore, one can consider short - selling the June contract on rallies [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Prices: JD01 closed at 3787 with no change from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3444, up 69 from the previous day; JD09 closed at 3849, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - Cross - month Spreads: The 01 - 05 spread was 343, down 69 from the previous day; the 05 - 09 spread was - 405, up 17 from the previous day; the 09 - 01 spread was 62, up 52 from the previous day [2]. - Ratio of Egg to Feed: The 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.66 with no change; the 05 egg/corn ratio was 1.48, up 0.03; the 09 egg/corn ratio was 1.65, up 0.02. The 01 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.28, down 0.01; the 05 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.23, up 0.02; the 09 egg/bean粕 ratio was 1.33, up 0.01 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Egg Prices: The average price in the main production areas was 3.28 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous trading day; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.54 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable, with only a few showing minor fluctuations. For example, the price in Shangqiu dropped by 0.1 yuan/jin [2][4]. - Culled Chicken Prices: The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous trading day. Most regional prices remained stable [2][5]. 3.3 Profit Calculation - Costs: The average price of culled chickens was 4.38 yuan/jin, unchanged; the average price of chicken seedlings was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan; the price of egg - chicken vaccines was 3 yuan, unchanged. The average price of corn was 2372 yuan, up 2 yuan; the average price of soybean meal was 3164 yuan, unchanged; the price of egg - chicken compound feed was 2.61 yuan, unchanged [2]. - Profits: The profit per chicken was 12.18 yuan, down 0.67 yuan from the previous day [2]. 3.4 Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In January, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, a year - on - year increase of 5%, and lower than the previous expectation. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in January was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9%, with little year - on - year change. As of the week of February 5, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7210 tons, a decrease of 2.3% from the previous week, which was at a relatively high level in the same period over the years [4][5]. - Culling Situation: In the week of February 6, the number of culled laying hens in the main production areas was 16.55 million, a 2% increase from the previous week. The average culling age of culled chickens was 495 days, a 2 - day increase from the previous week [5][6]. - Inventory and Profit: As of the week of February 5, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.02 days, an increase of 0.05 days from the previous week; the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.07 days, an increase of 0.02 days from the previous week. The average weekly profit per jin of eggs was 0.52 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.14 yuan/jin from the previous week. On February 6, the expected profit of egg - chicken farming was - 12.65 yuan per chicken, a decrease of 0.37 yuan per jin from the previous week [5]. 3.5 Trading Logic - As the Spring Festival approaches and the Spring Festival stocking is almost over, the previous good profit situation has reduced the market's enthusiasm for culling, slowing down the overall capacity reduction. Considering that the egg consumption off - season starts after the Spring Festival, although the inventory situation has improved, the recent good egg price has weakened the overall capacity reduction [6]. 3.6 Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short - selling the June contract on rallies. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7].