2026年1月价格数据点评：物价回升将构成债券收益率上行的基本面

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recovery of prices will form the fundamental basis for the upward movement of bond yields in 2026. If the PPI month - on - month can maintain 0.15 - 0.2%, it is only a matter of time before the year - on - year price recovery reaches 2%. The "potential inflation 2.0%" will form the lower limit of the 10 - year treasury bond. The 10 - year treasury bond is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2 - 3%, with a central value of 2.5% [1][5]. - The economic recovery falling short of expectations has been disproven. Coupled with possible broad credit and broad fiscal policies at the beginning of 2026, the economic cycle will accelerate its recovery. If there are broad monetary policies, it will be a chance to reduce holdings, similar to 2025. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI month - on - month can remain positive. If inflation rises month - on - month, there is a possibility of tightened funds, and short - term bond yields will also rise. Real estate is a lagging indicator, and it may bottom out after the recovery of various economic indicators and the rise of the stock market [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 January Price Data - CPI: The year - on - year increase in CPI fell, and the month - on - month increase was the same as the previous value. The year - on - year increase was lower than expected, mainly due to the Spring Festival date difference. The core CPI increased by 0.3% month - on - month, showing a mild recovery [3][4]. - PPI: The PPI increased month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline further narrowed. It is expected that prices will enter a "positive growth" phase, which is one of the expected differences in 2026 [4]. - Price Index Base Period Rotation: The impact of this base period rotation on the year - on - year indices of CPI and PPI is generally small. The weights of service items in the CPI have increased, while those of consumer goods have decreased [4]. 3.2 Market Conditions - On February 11, the long - term yield fluctuated downward. From the divergence index, funds were the main buyers of bonds. After the release of inflation data, the CPI year - on - year increase was lower than expected, and with the buying of trading desks, the active 10 - year treasury bond broke through the 1.79% mark, reaching a minimum of 1.7840% [6].