当龙头战法映射于商品：一部完整的有色板块周期演绎

Group 1: Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The market trend of the non-ferrous sector from the second half of 2025 to early 2026 followed the logic of the leading stock strategy in the stock market, with lithium carbonate as the core leader, followed by gold, platinum-palladium as followers, and finally silver taking over as the new leader [2][7][9] - There is a two-way feedback mechanism between the commodity and stock markets, where the futures market acts as a "weather vane" and the stock market as an "amplifier" [10][12] - When facing a strong commodity trend driven by sentiment and capital, investors should establish a systematic strategy that combines core cognition, operational tools, and mindset management [17][20] Group 3: Summary by Sections 1. Market Summary - Lithium carbonate became the core leader in the early "anti-involution" market due to its unique "leading gene", and its "first negative" feature provided an opportunity for off-market funds to enter [2] - After lithium carbonate entered a high-level shock, some funds flowed to gold as a "catch-up" choice, while platinum-palladium played a "follower" role [2][4] - In early January 2026, silver started an independent upward wave, taking over as the new market leader due to its strong fundamentals and price ratio effect [7] 2. Futures-Stock Linkage Mechanism - The commodity market's profit-making effect can be transmitted to the stock market, and vice versa, with the futures market reacting first and the stock market showing greater sensitivity and price elasticity [10] - The difference in trading rules between futures (T+0) and stocks (T+1) leads to different behaviors, and stock price fluctuations can sometimes be an "early warning signal" for the futures market [11][12] - To select stocks in a futures trend, investors should use data tools to identify market-recognized targets and look for stocks with resonance in technical, capital, and fundamental aspects [15][16] 3. Investment Insights - Accept the new reality that "sentiment is the fundamental factor" and follow the trend instead of trying to predict the top [17] - Use mobile stop-loss and options tools to manage risks and enhance returns [19] - Manage mindset by accepting that it's impossible to sell at the highest point, focusing on realized returns, and adhering to trading discipline [19][20]