软商品日报-20260212

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★★★ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ★★★ [1] - Apple: ★★★ [1] - Timber: ★★★ [1] - Natural Rubber: ★★★ [1] - 20 - number Rubber: ★★★ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall market is complex with different trends for various commodities. Most commodity operations are recommended to be on the sidelines, and some cross - variety arbitrage opportunities in the rubber market are worth noting [2][3][4][6] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, and the pre - festival trend may remain volatile. Spot trading was average, and the basis remained stable. Downstream stocking for the Spring Festival was basically over. New cotton showed a situation of strong supply and demand. In December, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, with year - on - year and month - on - month increases. The internal - external price difference is high, and the total import volume is not expected to increase significantly. Spinning mills' demand for raw materials is still resilient, but downstream orders are average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Market attention shifted to the next season's production forecast. In the post - rainy season, rainfall in the central - southern main producing areas of Brazil was low, which was not conducive to sugarcane growth. The sugar - making ratio is expected to decline, and Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season will decrease. In China, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated weakly. As of January 31, in the 2025/26 season, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production and sales both decreased year - on - year, and the industrial inventory increased. The production and sales progress was slow due to strong market bearish sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. Spring Festival stocking was coming to an end, and the cold - storage trading volume in the producing areas decreased. The overall sales were good. As of February 12, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 5.3151 million tons, a 10% year - on - year decrease. The market's main trading logic is on the demand side. High acquisition prices and strong reluctance to sell may affect inventory clearance. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber RU and 20 - number rubber NR fell slightly, and the butadiene rubber BR futures price dropped sharply. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber spot prices were stable, and the overseas butadiene port price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the production - reduction period, and some domestic areas entered the suspension - cutting period. Last week, the domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate rebounded significantly, with some plants under maintenance or reducing production. The butadiene plant operating rate continued to rise. Last week, the domestic tire operating rate dropped significantly, with the all - steel tire inventory of Shandong tire enterprises increasing and the semi - steel tire inventory decreasing significantly. The natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased to 606,800 tons, the domestic butadiene rubber social inventory increased to 16,400 tons, and the butadiene port inventory decreased to 36,600 tons. As the Spring Festival approaches, demand weakens, natural rubber supply decreases, synthetic rubber supply increases, rubber inventory rises, cost - driven factors weaken, and the market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures rose slightly. As of February 5, 2026, the mainstream import sample inventory of Chinese pulp was 2.182 million tons, a 0.6% month - on - month increase, and the inventory had been accumulating for five weeks. The domestic pulp price was weak, and the strength did not continue, with broad - leaved pulp performing relatively strongly. Downstream paper mills were cautious about stocking high - price raw materials, the demand support for pulp was weak, and paper mills were still implementing cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies. The short - term fundamentals of pulp were still weak, and the short - term trend was volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The spot price remained stable. The overseas offer was lowered, the domestic spot price was weak, and the short - term arrival volume would decrease. As of February 6, the average daily outbound volume of logs at 13 national ports was 51,500 cubic meters, a 16.53% month - on - month decrease. The total national port log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a 1.65% month - on - month decrease. The low inventory provided some support for the price. It is recommended to wait and see [8]