转债策略月报：转债高位，如何应对？-20260212

Market Review - The equity market has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 4.60% in January, while the CSI 1000 and Shenzhen Component Index performed even better. The convertible bond index increased by 8.45%, outperforming the broader market by 3.85 percentage points [8][12] - The average price of convertible bonds reached 169.06 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 10.97%. The average conversion premium rate for the market was 46.07%, indicating a low valuation range since January 2023 [12][14] - Public funds have increased their holdings in convertible bonds, with a total market value of 3340.4 billion yuan, up by 405.7 billion yuan from the previous month. However, the proportion of holdings by public funds decreased by 3.2 percentage points [21][22] Strategy Layout - The previous recommended convertible bond portfolio achieved an average return of 29.22%, significantly outperforming the CSI convertible bond index, which rose by 9.88%. The strategy focused on technology and cyclical sectors to navigate the ongoing equity market trends [33][34] - The report suggests maintaining a non-typical barbell strategy, emphasizing technology growth sectors supported by policy and innovation, while also including low-position cyclical varieties to mitigate potential market pullbacks [34][35] - The current recommended portfolio includes new additions such as Aladdin Convertible Bond and Hebang Convertible Bond, while removing two bonds that faced forced redemption [34][35] Primary Market Dynamics & Clause Monitoring - As of January 28, 2026, there were 18 convertible bonds that announced early redemption, with a strong redemption ratio of 60%. Additionally, 10 convertible bonds announced potential downward adjustments, while 16 did not, indicating a downward adjustment ratio of 38.5% [30][31] - The issuance of new convertible bonds is progressing, with several companies receiving approval from the CSRC for upcoming issuances, including significant amounts from Changgao Electric and Haitan Co., indicating a positive outlook for new bond listings [25][27]