原油、燃料油日报：供给收缩需求承压，原油偏强震荡延续-20260212

Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - Main Contracts and Basis: The price of the SC crude oil main contract rose slightly from 476.1 yuan/barrel to 476.8 yuan/barrel, a 0.15% increase. The prices of the WTI and Brent main contracts remained stable at 64.2 dollars/barrel and 69.08 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread strengthened from -0.21 dollars/barrel to -0.09 dollars/barrel, a 57.14% increase. The SC-WTI spread strengthened from 4.67 dollars/barrel to 4.79 dollars/barrel, a 2.57% increase. The Brent-WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.88 dollars/barrel. The SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread slightly declined from -8.6 yuan/barrel to -8.7 yuan/barrel, a 1.16% decrease [2]. - Positions and Trading Volume: Position data is not provided. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged at 3,464,000 barrels. The low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons to 4,980 tons, and the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 34,710 tons [2]. Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Change Analysis - Supply Side: According to the OPEC monthly report on February 11, 2026, OPEC+ member countries' total output in January decreased by 439,000 barrels per day to 42.45 million barrels per day, mainly due to the decline in Kazakhstan's output. Specific country changes include: UAE decreased by 14,000 barrels per day to 3.389 million barrels per day; Nigeria decreased by 19,000 barrels per day to 1.478 million barrels per day; Libya decreased by 6,000 barrels per day to 1.304 million barrels per day; Algeria decreased by 2,000 barrels per day to 968,000 barrels per day; Venezuela decreased by 87,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day; Iran decreased by 81,000 barrels per day to 3.129 million barrels per day; Iraq increased by 38,000 barrels per day to 4.157 million barrels per day; Saudi Arabia increased by 13,000 barrels per day to 10.086 million barrels per day. Geopolitical events affected supply, such as the explosion of the oil pipeline in Oaxaca, Mexico, and the attack on a refinery in Volgograd, Russia. The Trump administration discussed seizing Iranian oil tankers, which may further restrict Iranian exports [3]. - Demand Side: The OPEC monthly report maintained the global oil demand growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027 unchanged at 1.38 million barrels per day and 1.34 million barrels per day respectively, expecting air travel and road traffic to support demand, with the depreciation of the US dollar providing additional support. Actual demand data showed that from February 6 to February 11, 2026, the implied demand for EIA distillate fuel oil production in the US for the week ending February 6 dropped to 5.3961 million barrels per day, a significant decline from the previous value of 5.8043 million barrels per day, reflecting short - term pressure on refined oil demand. India's shift to purchasing US and Venezuelan crude oil may boost regional demand, but overall demand is constrained by refinery disturbances [4]. - Inventory Side: Inventory data decreased slightly. From February 6 to February 11, 2026, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 0.1 million barrels, a decline from the previous value of 21.4 million barrels. In terms of warehouse receipts, on February 11, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's crude oil warehouse receipts remained stable at 3,464,000 barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 800 tons, indicating a relief of local inventory pressure. However, the petroleum asphalt factory warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons, indicating inventory accumulation of downstream products [4]. Price Trend Judgment Crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating pattern. On the supply side, OPEC+ production continues to contract, and geopolitical events such as the pipeline explosion in Mexico and the attack on a refinery in Russia intensify supply uncertainty, supporting price increases. On the demand side, although supported by global growth forecasts, the significant decline in US distillate fuel oil demand and the accumulation of refined oil inventories bring downward pressure. The overall inventory decreased slightly, but the limited decline in strategic reserves restricts the price breakthrough space. Considering the changes in supply, demand, and inventory, the slight increase in the SC crude oil main contract reflects the market's concern about supply tightness, but the risk of weak demand suppresses the increase. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of macro - indicators such as the US non - farm payroll data on February 11, 2026, and China's PPI on demand expectations [6].