美豆强预期与弱现实的动态博弈

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the USDA's February report, the market has entered a new stage of actively tracking and gaming future variables such as trade flows, industrial policies, and planting intentions. The price of US soybeans will fluctuate between the weak reality of new supply surplus and potential demand expectations until a new and solid fundamental main line is confirmed [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. US Soybean Data Remains Unchanged - In the February supply - demand report, the USDA made no adjustments to all key estimates of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season. The production, yield, sown and harvested areas, and ending stocks (350 million bushels) of US soybeans remained the same as in the January estimate, with ending stocks at a six - year high. The export estimate was still 1.575 billion bushels, in line with the USDA's cautious style and market expectations [8]. - Although the US soybean crushing demand is strong and the current crushing progress is slightly higher than the annual target, the USDA's estimate remains unchanged to reserve adjustment space for upcoming major policies. The market is highly concerned about the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies to be announced by the US EPA in March, which may boost soybean - based biodiesel demand and US soybean crushing volume [8]. - The high ending stocks of US soybeans suppress the rebound of futures prices. There are still differences in the market's view of US soybean stocks. Some institutions believe that if US soybean exports increase slightly in the future, the stocks may fall to 275 million - 320 million bushels. The future adjustment of US soybean stocks depends on the changes in exports and crushing levels [9]. 3.2. Record - High Production of South American Soybeans Confirmed - In the February report, the USDA raised the 2025/2026 Brazilian soybean production estimate by 2 million tons to a record 180 million tons, and the global soybean ending stocks by 1.1 million tons to 125.51 million tons, indicating a high - supply era dominated by South America [10]. - The high - supply situation in South America has led to a weakening of the basis for farmers' sales. Brazilian farmers are in a dilemma of increasing production but not necessarily increasing income. Chinese buyers, as the world's largest importers, prefer Brazilian new soybeans with better cost - performance, squeezing the traditional sales window of US soybeans [10][11]. - The increase in Brazilian soybean production in the USDA report coincides with the quality problem of soaring soybean mold rate due to continuous heavy rain in the main producing areas, leading to complex market games [11]. 3.3. Shift in Market Trading Drivers - The USDA's decision to keep all core data at January levels in the February report sets a supply - demand balance benchmark for the market. Market pricing logic has shifted from static data to continuous verification and intense gaming of a series of dynamic and undetermined external key variables [12]. - Market trading is divided into three progressive time dimensions and verification nodes. In the short - term, the core of the market depends on whether China's increased purchases of US soybeans can translate into continuous trade flows. In the medium - term, the driving force will shift to the renewable fuel obligation and 45Z tax incentive policies of the US EPA, and the USDA's planting intention report at the end of March. The market generally expects the US soybean planting area to expand significantly in 2026/2027, putting potential pressure on far - month contracts [13]. - After the release of the USDA report, the market is in a tug - of - war between weak reality and strong expectations. The price trend of US soybeans will depend on which key narrative line can make a breakthrough and be confirmed by official data, and the high production of Brazilian soybeans will suppress global soybean prices throughout the game [14]. 3.4. Uncertainties in US Soybean Exports - The USDA maintained the 2025/2026 US soybean export estimate at 1.575 billion bushels in the February report, which has remained unchanged for two consecutive months. Driven by optimistic export expectations to China, the US soybean futures price was strong recently, but the actual export sales progress is lagging [15]. - As of January 29, 2026, the total sales of US soybeans to China in the 2025/2026 season were only 9.887 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 51.6%. The shipping progress was also slow, with the loaded volume to China accounting for only 51.3% of the USDA's annual export forecast, far lower than the five - year average of 66.9% [16]. - The main challenge for US soybean exports is the direct competition from South America. The price of US soybeans is significantly higher than that of Brazilian soybeans. However, if the quality problems of Brazilian soybeans due to heavy rain seriously affect its export volume, it may prompt buyers to turn to US soybeans. Overall, it is difficult for US soybean exports in the 2025/2026 season to achieve a significant increase beyond expectations [17].