Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Analyze the price trends and influencing factors of various core futures varieties during the Spring Festival holiday, and suggest investors to hold no positions during the holiday due to high uncertainties and potential large price fluctuations [9][11][13] - Provide historical statistics of the price fluctuations of overseas markets during the Spring Festival in the past decade for investors' reference [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Near - Decade Spring Festival Overseas Market Price Fluctuation Statistics - The average price fluctuation range of overseas commodities during the Spring Festival holiday in history is between -3.5% and 4%. Crude oil, shipping indexes and other varieties have more obvious price fluctuations, especially in the past two years due to extreme events such as geopolitical conflicts [6] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Shanghai Copper - Before the Spring Festival, affected by overseas news and precious metal sentiment, the price fluctuated greatly, and then stabilized with a narrowing amplitude. The supply and demand decreased before the festival. In January, the production exceeded expectations by 1.57 tons, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The expected output in February will decrease by 3.58 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year [9] - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association's proposal to improve the copper reserve system stimulated the market, amplifying the expectation of supply shortage. As of December 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 131.88 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.00%. After the price correction, downstream industries replenished raw materials, but as the Spring Festival approached, downstream procurement decreased [9] - The price is supported by mine - end disturbances and domestic industry anti - involution, and suppressed by weak pre - holiday transactions. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [9] 3.2.2 Lithium Carbonate - Before the Spring Festival, affected by non - ferrous metals and precious metals in both domestic and overseas markets, the price volatility increased. In recent days, the market began to trade on supply contraction, and the price rebounded slightly. Due to the maintenance plan of lithium salt factories, the supply in February is expected to decrease. It is estimated that the output in February will be 8.19 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [10] - According to Chile customs data, in January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,893 tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.59%. The export to China was 16,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.81% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.35% [10] - PLS signed a two - year lithium spodumene concentrate off - take agreement with Tianyi Lithium Industry, providing a floor price for lithium prices. The downstream demand is expected to strengthen. In March, the downstream production orders are expected to increase significantly, and the demand for lithium carbonate will rise. The inventory is gradually shifting downstream. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [11] 3.2.3 Crude Oil - Eight OPEC+ member countries will maintain the plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. During the off - season of crude oil demand, US crude oil inventories increased significantly more than expected, but propane and refined oil inventories decreased significantly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased slightly. The global floating crude oil storage is high, and the market is in a state of supply surplus [12] - Saudi Aramco lowered the price of Arab Light crude oil shipped to Asia in March 2025. The EIA's February report raised the forecast of crude oil supply surplus in 2026. The oil production in Venezuela is expected to recover in mid - 2026 [12] - The US - Iran nuclear talks in Muscat, Oman "temporarily" ended. The US warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters. The situation in the Middle East is uncertain. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate greatly during the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hold no positions [13] 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% last week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. It is estimated that the domestic asphalt production in February 2026 will be 193.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.4 tons (3.2%) and a year - on - year decrease of 13.5 tons (6.5%) [14] - The downstream construction rates of asphalt industries decreased before the Spring Festival. The national asphalt shipment decreased by 1.33% to 21.16 tons. The refinery inventory rate decreased slightly and is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The supply of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is restricted, which may affect production and cost [14] - Some refineries resumed production, and the production rate increased slightly. The spot trading was light before the Spring Festival. The asphalt price will fluctuate with the oil price. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday and close the 03 - 06 reverse spread [14] 3.2.5 PP - As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PP decreased by 2.24 percentage points to 49.84%. The construction rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased by 5.30 percentage points to 36.74%, and the orders continued to decline. On February 12, the PP enterprise construction rate remained at about 82.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawn yarn decreased to about 28% [15][16] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. The downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [16] 3.2.6 Plastic - On February 12, the plastic construction rate remained at about 92%. As of the week of February 6, the downstream construction rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73%. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased, and the overall downstream construction rate decreased seasonally [17] - The petrochemical inventory in February decreased well and is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The cost is affected by the US - Iran negotiation and the expected military conflict, and the crude oil price rebounded. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. It is recommended to hold no positions for single - side trading and hold a light position for narrowing the L - PP spread [17] 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC construction rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%. The downstream construction rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to stock up is low. After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased, but the previous export rush reduced the sales pressure [19] - The social inventory continued to increase and is still at a high level. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit is under pressure, and the PVC construction rate is expected to change little. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [19] 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Before the Spring Festival, coking coal entered a weak shock range, with both supply and demand decreasing. As the holiday approached, domestic mine production decreased, and the supply of Mongolian coal was restricted. The rumor of Indonesia's export suspension has high uncertainty [20] - The downstream demand is in the off - season, and steel mills and coking enterprises maintain low - level inventory and replenish inventory as needed. The coking enterprises' profit has recovered, but there is a risk of price reduction after the holiday. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [20] 3.2.9 Urea - Before the Spring Festival, urea showed an upward - trending shock. Today, it rose sharply due to market rumors, and the order collection during the holiday was completed smoothly. The upstream factory production is stable during the holiday, with a daily output of 21 tons, which is relatively high year - on - year and month - on - month [22] - The previous high - output pressure has been mostly digested. The inventory decreased significantly last year, and it is expected to increase during the holiday. After the holiday, it will enter the agricultural demand peak season, and the supply - demand relationship will be in a tight balance. However, the price increase may be restricted by policies. It is recommended to hold no positions during the holiday [22]
核心期货品种春节假期持仓报告：近十年春节期间外盘涨跌幅统计
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2026-02-12 13:11