1月美国非农就业数据点评：就业超预期，降息就更远了吗？

Employment Data - In January 2026, the U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs, significantly exceeding the forecast of 65,000 and a revised previous value of 48,000[5] - The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, lower than the expected and previous rate of 4.4%[5] Sector Performance - Job growth was primarily driven by improvements in education and healthcare sectors, which added 84,000 jobs[7] - The goods-producing sector saw an increase of 36,000 jobs, with construction and manufacturing improving, while mining jobs decreased[7] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-on-year growth of 3.7%[7] - Core service inflation pressures are rising, particularly in the education and healthcare sectors, correlating with significant job growth in these areas[7] Interest Rate Outlook - Despite the strong employment data, the expectation for interest rate cuts remains unchanged, with a baseline expectation of no cuts during Powell's remaining term[7] - Following the appointment of Waller in May, there is a potential for at least 50 basis points of rate cuts within the year, influenced by tariff impacts on inflation[7] Risks - There is a risk of inflation exceeding expectations, which could hinder the possibility of rate cuts[6]