2026年1月通胀数据点评：涨价在外不在内

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous value of 0.8%[6] - The CPI month-on-month remained flat at 0.2%, consistent with the previous month[6] - The decline in CPI is attributed to both base effects and weak month-on-month momentum[6] - Core inflation remains the main contributor, with clothing, services, and medical care showing positive growth, while food, housing, and transportation experienced negative growth[6][17] Group 2: PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement of 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -1.9%[23] - The month-on-month PPI increased by 0.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month[23] - The rise in PPI is driven by base effects and stronger month-on-month momentum, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector[23][32] - Non-ferrous metals continue to provide the main upward pressure on PPI, while other sectors like equipment and durable goods show slight improvements[32] Group 3: Price Transmission Issues - The report indicates that price increases are primarily driven by external factors, with limited transmission to downstream prices[35] - The upcoming Chinese New Year is expected to lead to a significant rebound in CPI for February 2026, as historical trends suggest a month-on-month increase[35] - External geopolitical factors are expected to support PPI in the short term, but internal price transmission requires more demand-side policies and capacity clearing measures[35]