HTSC·2026-02-12 13:25Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both H-shares and A-shares, with target prices set at HKD 91 and RMB 170 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the positive impact of AI-related demand on the company's average selling price (ASP), which is expected to rise due to supply constraints in mature processes and increased demand for AI-related products [2][3]. - The establishment of an advanced packaging research institute indicates the company's strategic focus on enhancing its capabilities in advanced packaging, aiming to create an integrated delivery capability similar to TSMC's Foundry 2.0 [3][22]. - The company is projected to maintain a capital expenditure level similar to 2025, with a focus on expanding its 12-inch wafer capacity and addressing the depreciation impact on profit margins [4][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, the company reported revenues of USD 2.489 billion, a 4.5% increase quarter-over-quarter, and a gross margin of 19.2%, which aligns with previous guidance [14][16]. - The company expects Q1 2026 revenues to remain flat quarter-over-quarter, with a gross margin forecast of 18% to 20% [19]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been adjusted upwards by 1.9% and 4.1% respectively, with projected revenues of USD 110 billion, USD 134 billion, and USD 149 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 [20][22]. - Net profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been revised downwards by 4.6% and 14.7% respectively, with expected net profits of USD 7.0 million, USD 7.9 million, and USD 9.7 million for the same years [20][22]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is recognized as the only scalable advanced process platform in mainland China, which provides it with strategic scarcity in the market [22]. - The report emphasizes the company's proactive investment in local production and the domestic AI industry chain opportunities, positioning it as a key beneficiary of the global supply chain restructuring [22].