东吴证券晨会纪要2026年1月-20260213

Macro Strategy - The employment report for January indicates a resilient labor market in the US, with better-than-expected unemployment rates and employment data driven by a combination of fiscal and monetary easing, as well as seasonal factors [1][8] - Although the non-farm payrolls exceeded expectations by 2.46 times the standard deviation, the structure remains distorted, with 124,000 of the 130,000 new jobs coming from the healthcare sector, indicating a zero growth trend in private employment when excluding healthcare [1][8] - The expectation is for the US economy to continue outperforming in Q1, with a focus on the upcoming core CPI release and the potential warming of market expectations regarding Trump's visit to China in April [1][8] Fixed Income - The report highlights the evolution of bond financing paths for leading tech companies, particularly in the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of a diversified financing system to support tech firms during growth and significant investment phases [2][10] - The analysis of companies like Oracle, Nebius, Alphabet, and Meta illustrates how their bond issuance strategies have evolved alongside their growth stages, showcasing the symbiotic relationship between development and debt issuance [2][10][11] Industry - The report on the smart driving experience in the automotive sector indicates a shift in focus from coverage to experience optimization, with major manufacturers achieving successful implementation of complex urban NOA scenarios [5][13] - The evaluation of six smart driving suppliers shows improvements in their capabilities compared to 2025, with notable advancements in self-developed solutions from companies like Li Auto and XPeng, as well as impressive performances from third-party suppliers [5][13] - The report identifies the growing demand for liquid cooling systems in data centers as a significant driver for valve manufacturers, particularly in emerging markets like the Middle East, where urbanization and industrialization are accelerating [6][15] Recommended Stocks - Weilong Co., Ltd. is positioned as a leading supplier of water valves, expected to benefit from increased demand in the Middle East due to urbanization and industrialization, with projected net profits of 130 million, 170 million, and 220 million for 2025-2027 [6][15] - China Resources Mixc Life is highlighted for its strong operational capabilities and consistent project delivery, with expected net profits of 3.903 billion, 4.331 billion, and 4.821 billion for 2025-2027, maintaining a "buy" rating due to its leading position in commercial operations [6][15]