浙商证券浙商早知道-20260213

Market Overview - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.12%, the STAR 50 surged by 1.78%, the CSI 1000 climbed by 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index went up by 1.32%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.86% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on February 12 were comprehensive (+5.31%), electronics (+1.73%), electric equipment (+1.65%), computers (+1.58%), and communications (+1.55%). The worst-performing sectors included beauty care (-1.77%), retail (-1.57%), textiles and apparel (-1.49%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.49%), and banking (-1.41%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on February 12 was 21,608 billion, with a net inflow of 4.567 billion HKD from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Strategy Research - The probability of the Shanghai Composite Index rising after a volume increase and stagnation is low. A volume increase with stagnation indicates significant market divergence at relatively high levels, suggesting a potential adjustment phase [5] - After a volume increase and stagnation, there is still a nearly 20% chance that the index could rise more than 1% in the following week, indicating the need for a comprehensive assessment of other indicators and market conditions [5] - Concerns about economic growth, unmet expectations for policy easing, and pressures on market liquidity due to adverse overseas conditions and tightening domestic monetary policy may lead to market consolidation [5] - If policies are determined to be relatively accommodative, and if economic fundamentals recover beyond expectations, there remains a possibility for the market to continue upward despite volume stagnation [5] Macro Research - There is a potential for PPI to rise unexpectedly, but this is not driven by demand-side improvements. Continuous observation of various nominal variables is necessary [7] - Inflation may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to unreasonable price increases [7]