格林大华期货早盘提示-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the production of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. The spot steel prices were stable on February 12th, with sluggish trading, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery. As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk, but positions are at a high level, and there are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down and rose during the night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] - Among 51 short - process and billet - adjusted section steel production enterprises nationwide, 4% continued normal production during the Spring Festival. The main resumption times after the festival are concentrated around February 24 - 26 (the 8th - 10th day of the first lunar month) and after March 3 (the 15th day of the first lunar month) [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. On February 12th, the spot steel prices were stable, trading was sluggish, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery [1] Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk. On February 12th, the trading volume of the rebar main contract was less than 500,000 lots, about 50% lower than the average daily volume of 900,000 - 1 million lots in January. However, positions are at a high level, with the position of the rebar main contract remaining above 2 million lots, and funds have not left the market on a large scale. There are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may lead to unexpected market conditions. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1]