贵属策略报：强就业延后降息预期，?银进?震荡整固阶段

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong employment data in the US has postponed the short - term interest rate cut expectation, and precious metals have entered a stage of shock consolidation. The market has postponed the next interest rate cut from June to July. Spot gold remains above $5000, and after a significant pullback from the historical high at the beginning of the month, it has recovered about half of the decline. The market has shifted from the "accelerated rise" stage to the "macro - verification" driven stage [1]. - For gold, the sentiment has ebbed, the logic remains unchanged, but the upward rhythm has slowed down. For silver, high volatility continues, and the structural supply shortage still exists [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - Logic: Firstly, the non - farm payrolls in January were stronger than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, strengthening the Fed's inclination to keep interest rates unchanged, which put pressure on the gold price. Secondly, the US dollar index remained relatively stable, and the US Treasury yields rebounded, resulting in a lack of trend - driving force for precious metals in the short term. Thirdly, the gold price soared to a new historical high driven by speculative buying, then pulled back about 13% in two days, and has now recovered about half of the decline, indicating a shift from momentum - driven to macro - verification - driven [1]. - Outlook: In the medium term, geopolitical disturbances, disputes over the Fed's independence, and the global asset re - allocation trend still provide core support. The structural logic of the previous rise has not changed fundamentally, but the upward rhythm will be more moderate, and the volatility will be significantly lower than that in the previous accelerated stage [1]. Silver - Logic: Firstly, silver is more sensitive to interest rates and the US dollar. After the release of strong employment data, its volatility increased, and the daily amplitude was significantly higher than that of gold. Secondly, silver has fallen about 30% from its historical high on January 29th, and the recovery process is more intense, indicating that its small market capacity and low liquidity lead to amplified elasticity. Thirdly, in terms of supply and demand, the silver market is expected to be in a supply deficit for the sixth consecutive year. Investment demand is still the core variable. The tight inventory pattern in the Chinese market has not been fully alleviated, and the exchange has strengthened management of the delivery process, which may suppress some speculative squeezing behavior in the short term [2]. - Outlook: Overall, silver is in a game between the pressure on its financial attributes and the structural supply shortage. Its price path depends more on the confirmation of the macro direction. Once the real interest rate falls again, the elasticity of the silver price may be reflected again [2]. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: No detailed information provided. - Special Index: The commodity index is 2390.85, up 0.32%; the commodity 20 index is 2729.71, up 0.27%; the industrial products index is 2290.96, up 0.41% [41]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on February 11, 2026, is 4268.21, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a decline of 1.35% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.30% in the past month, and an increase of 11.61% since the beginning of the year [43].