节前板块震荡运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural sector showed a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, with different trends and influencing factors for each sub - industry [1] - Different agricultural products have different outlooks, such as some are expected to oscillate, some are expected to be weak, and some are expected to strengthen [1][2][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Views - Oils and Fats: Futures prices declined due to light pre - holiday spot trading and capital flight. Supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is ample. Palm oil is about to enter the destocking stage. Demand depends on biodiesel policies and export performance. It is recommended to consider buying hedging at low callback levels [1][5][6] - Protein Meal: International soybean prices are affected by export expectations and South American weather, and are operating in the range of 1130 - 1160. Domestic soybean meal shows a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. After the festival, prices are expected to be weak. It is not recommended to chase up prices before the festival [7] - Corn: Affected by industry news and sentiment, futures are strongly volatile. After the festival, focus on traders' delivery and inventory replenishment rhythms [9] - Pigs: Supply is abundant, and prices are expected to be weak before and after the Spring Festival. The industry is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year, and prices may pick up in the second half of the year [10] - Natural Rubber: The price fluctuates slowly before the festival, maintaining an upward trend. The current trading logic is mainly macro - influenced, and the fundamentals are relatively weak but the expectations are good. The market is expected to remain volatile [13] - Synthetic Rubber: The BR market maintains a high - level range - bound pattern. The mid - term core logic is the expectation of tight supply of butadiene in the first half of 2026. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the medium term [15] - Cotton: The fundamentals have not changed much. The price has rebounded slightly. After the festival, with the arrival of the peak demand season, the price may strengthen. In the long - term, it is expected to be volatile and strong [16] - Sugar: In the medium - to - long term, the price is expected to be volatile and weak due to the expected global supply surplus in the new sugar - making season [17] - Pulp: The spot price is almost stagnant, and the futures fluctuate independently. The supply - demand is weak before the festival and is expected to improve after the festival. The futures are expected to be volatile [18] - Double - Glue Paper: The market is winding down at the end of the year, and the price rebounds with reduced positions. Before the festival, the trading is weak, and it is expected to be stable in the short - term and volatile and weak in the range [19] - Logs: The pre - holiday trading is basically stagnant. The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short - term, and there is a risk of weakening in the medium - term without new positive factors [21] 3.2. Variety Data Monitoring - Oils and Fats: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Protein Meal: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Corn and Starch: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Pigs: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Sugar: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Pulp and Double - Glue Paper: Not provided with specific data analysis content - Logs: Not provided with specific data analysis content 3.3. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of CITIC Futures commodities all showed an upward trend on February 12, 2026. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 0.49%, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.53%, the industrial products index increased by 0.42%, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.29%. The agricultural product index increased by 0.44% on that day, with a 0.56% increase in the past 5 days, a - 0.71% change in the past month, and a 0.20% increase since the beginning of the year [182][183]