IEA预判原油仍过剩，化?周度开?普遍-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market continues to oscillate, with the market awaiting the clarification of geopolitical situations. The IEA predicts a supply surplus of over 370,000 barrels per day in the global crude oil market in 2026 [2]. - The weekly production of the chemical industry generally increased in the week approaching the Spring Festival, and the weekly operating rate of Chinese refineries also showed an upward trend. The probability of significant market fluctuations before the festival is low. It is recommended that investors hold light positions during the holiday [2]. - Overall, coal prices are stabilizing, while crude oil and chemical prices continue to oscillate and consolidate [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Crude Oil: Geopolitical premiums are fluctuating, and risks remain high around the holiday. The fundamentals of the current crude oil market are not optimistic, with high inventory levels. Geopolitical factors dominate the price fluctuations, and the market risks are relatively large during the Spring Festival. The short - term outlook is for oscillation [7]. - Asphalt: The tight supply of raw materials is gradually easing, and the futures price is oscillating. The long - term valuation of asphalt is expected to decline as the supply of heavy oil is expected to be abundant in the future, and the inventory accumulation pressure is large [8]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The futures price still has a relatively high geopolitical premium. The long - term supply increase of heavy oil will put pressure on the price, and the short - term focus is on the progress of the US - Iran negotiations [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It follows the upward oscillation of crude oil. Although it faces some negative factors, its current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate with crude oil [10]. - PX: The demand support before the festival is insufficient. The supply has increased while the demand has decreased, and the price has回调 in the short term. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - PTA: The cost support is insufficient, and the price is in a range - bound consolidation. The seasonal inventory accumulation pressure is large, but the processing fee still has some support in the short term [12]. - Pure Benzene: The price oscillation is mainly affected by crude oil prices and market sentiment. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the short term, and the market has a large divergence in the Q2 fundamentals [13]. - Styrene: The supply - demand situation has become marginally looser. The upward momentum has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate [16]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): The import volume in the second quarter has been revised downwards, and there is a weak repair expectation for supply - demand. The price has limited downside [17]. - Polyester Staple Fiber: Both supply and demand have decreased, and the trading is light. The price will follow the movement of upstream products [21]. - Polyester Bottle Chips: The volatility has narrowed, and the trading atmosphere has declined. The price will follow the cost fluctuations [22]. - Methanol: The coastal trading has been suspended before the festival, and the inventory discharge in the inland is coming to an end. It is expected to oscillate and consolidate [23]. - Urea: The pre - festival orders are coming to an end, and the sustainability of sentiment boost may be limited. The supply is stable at a high level, and the demand has the expectation of a peak season after the Spring Festival [25]. - LLDPE: Both long and short positions are cautious before the long holiday. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the focus is on the return of demand after the festival [27]. - PP: Both long and short positions are cautious before the festival. It is advisable to hold light positions. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - PL: Supported by the spot market, it oscillates. The supply increase is limited, and the downstream demand in the off - season has limited support [29]. - PVC: With low valuation and weak expectations, it oscillates. The market sentiment has weakened, and the support from "export rush" has diminished [31]. - Caustic Soda: The comprehensive profit is poor, and it weakly stabilizes. The chlorine - alkali profit is poor, but the futures price has a high premium, and it is expected to oscillate before the festival [32]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [34]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Information on the basis and warehouse receipts of varieties like asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. is presented, including the latest values and changes [35]. - Inter - variety Spreads: Data on the inter - variety spreads of different varieties are given, such as the spreads between PP and 3MA, TA and EG, etc., along with their changes [36]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring Although the catalog mentions monitoring for multiple varieties, no specific data or analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index, featured index, and plate index are presented. The comprehensive index shows an upward trend, with the energy index having a daily increase of 1.19%, a 5 - day increase of 2.79%, a 1 - month increase of 4.56%, and a year - to - date increase of 8.50% [276][277].