宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026年2月13日）-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The report provides short - term, medium - term, and daily views on soybean meal, palm oil, and other agricultural product futures, with most of the views being "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean Meal (M) - Short - term: The short - term view is "oscillating", and the core logic is that excessive rainfall in the mid - west of Brazil delays soybean harvesting and listing, boosting US soybean prices. In China, the tightening of spot delivery contracts before the festival provides price support, but high domestic inventories and sufficient supply expectations in the far - month remain, with potential for post - festival soybean auctions, so short - term prices will oscillate. Key factors to watch include the US Agricultural Outlook Forum's area forecast in mid - to late February, and South American weather and logistics [5]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and the influencing factors include import soybean cost, arrival rhythm, oil refinery operation rhythm, and inventory pressure [5]. - Daily: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Short - term: The short - term view is "oscillating weakly". The core logic is that the pre - festival oil market is in a weak oscillation pattern dominated by funds. Weak February export data of Malaysian palm oil and a negative sentiment at industry conferences suppress the price. The domestic oil futures price is dominated by import costs, and attention should be paid to US soybean oil policies and post - festival inventory pressure [6]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view is "oscillating", and influencing factors include Malaysian palm oil production and exports, Indonesian biodiesel and export policies, EU policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [5]. - Daily: The daily view is "oscillating weakly", and the reference view is also "oscillating weakly" [5][6]. Other Information - The calculation of the price change range is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night - session trading, and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night - session trading, with the day - session closing price as the end - point price [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered "weak", a decline of 0 - 1% is "oscillating weakly", an increase of 0 - 1% is "oscillating strongly", and an increase of more than 1% is "strong". The concepts of "oscillating strongly/weakly" are only for daily views, without a distinction between short - term and medium - term [3][4].