格林期货早盘提示：三油，两粕-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the edible oil sector, due to the approach of the Spring Festival holiday, external macro - risks are uncontrollable, so it is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading. For the two - meal sector, although the rise in US soybeans drives cost increases and domestic import policies tighten, it is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced [2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock (Three Oils) 3.1.1 Market Review - On February 12th, before the Spring Festival holiday, the exchange raised margins, more investors left the market, and the weakening of the Malaysian market dragged down the market. The Dalian palm oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of various oil contracts decreased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [1]. 3.1.2 Important News - On February 12th, the settlement price of the active March crude oil futures contract on NYMEX was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 or 2.77%. US crude inventories increased by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels last week. The IEA stated that this year's global oil demand growth rate will be lower than expected [1]. - The US and India reached a temporary trade agreement framework, with India canceling or reducing tariffs on US industrial products, food, and agricultural products, and the US reducing the so - called reciprocal tariff rate on Indian goods from 25% to 18% [1]. - The US government is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, generally following the initial proposal and abandoning a plan to impose penalties on imports of renewable fuels and raw materials. The EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, close to the initially proposed 5.61 billion gallons [1]. - The January supply - demand report of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was generally positive. Malaysia's palm oil imports, production, and inventory decreased, while exports increased [1]. - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, at 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the EIA's downward adjustment of global crude oil demand led to a 3% drop in international crude oil prices. However, multiple positive factors such as the US - India trade agreement, potential increases in US soybean and soybean oil exports to India, and the improvement of domestic biodiesel policies in the US supported the US soybean oil to maintain a good upward trend. The Malaysian palm oil market was generally positive, but due to the approaching Spring Festival, the market was cautious and the overall trend was flat. For domestic soybean oil, factory production was high in the recent two weeks, and the reduction in inventory was limited. The spot market was basically over before the festival, and the basis quote was mainly stable. After the festival, the basis quote would be supported during the replenishment period but would face pressure later. For palm oil, the fundamentals were positive, but the expected high inventory put pressure on the market. For rapeseed oil, there was a lack of new topics in the market, and it was expected to maintain a wide - range shock pattern before the festival [2]. 3.1.4 Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: It is advisable to conservatively observe the market and engage in intraday trading before the Spring Festival. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts [2]. - Arbitrage trading: None at present [2]. 3.2 Two Meals (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On February 12th, driven by the rise in the external market, short basis and long futures positions, the two - meal market continued to rebound. The closing prices of various contracts increased to varying degrees, and the trading volume also changed [2]. 3.2.2 Important News - The February USDA soybean supply - demand report was generally bearish, slightly increasing Brazil's production and global soybean inventory. However, the increase in US soybean exports pushed up the US soybean futures price. The report also provided data on the US, Brazil, and Argentina's soybean production, exports, and inventory [3]. - As of the end of the 6th week of 2026, domestic import soybean inventory decreased, while domestic soybean meal inventory and contract volume increased. Domestic imported rapeseed inventory decreased, and imported rapeseed meal inventory and contract volume increased [3]. - The national grain trading center's soybean auction on January 13th had a 100% transaction rate [3]. 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, the improved trade prospects of US soybeans pushed up the US soybean futures price. For domestic soybean meal, as the Spring Festival approached, some institutions adjusted their positions for risk - avoidance reasons. The market showed a pattern of near - strong and far - weak, and there was a short - term rebound. The spot price of the oil refinery increased slightly, and the market was light. For rapeseed meal, domestic oil refineries were actively buying rapeseed in the far - month. Considering the expected increase in imports and the end of pre - festival stocking, the domestic two - meal market was expected to have a weak and narrow - range shock pattern before the festival and was likely to face downward pressure after the festival [4]. 3.2.4 Trading Strategies - It is not recommended to chase the upward trend significantly, and existing long positions should be gradually reduced. The report provides support and pressure levels for various contracts. Arbitrage trading: None at present [4].