非农数据好于预期，铂钯价格小幅回落

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The better-than-expected US non-farm payroll data led to a slight decline in platinum and palladium prices. The US dollar index strengthened slightly, putting pressure on platinum and palladium prices. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 544.9 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.05%; the closing price of the GFEX palladium main contract was 430.05 yuan/gram, with a decline of 1.48% [1]. - In the short term, the market is in a stage of shock consolidation due to factors such as the expected increase in sanctions on Russian platinum group metals in Europe, the repeated geopolitical issues between the US and Iran, and the fluctuation of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. In the long term, the US is still in an interest rate cut channel, and the long - term trend of the weakening of the US dollar credit is conducive to the release of long - term price elasticity. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium when the platinum - palladium ratio falls to a relatively low level [2]. - The supply of palladium is uncertain, with the US investigation result on the import of unforged palladium from Russia yet to be announced and Europe considering a new round of sanctions on Russian - produced palladium. The tight spot market supports the price, and although the long - term supply - demand is tending to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations provide clear support for the price [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - Main Logic: The increase in US non - farm employment in January was higher than expected, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. The strengthening of the US dollar index put pressure on platinum prices. In the short term, multiple factors disturbed the market, and the market was in shock consolidation. In the long term, the US was in an interest rate cut channel, and the weakening of the US dollar credit was conducive to price elasticity. The platinum - palladium ratio fell to a relatively low level this week [2]. - Outlook: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be shock - strong [2]. Palladium - Main Logic: The supply of palladium is uncertain, with the US investigation on Russian unforged palladium import and European sanctions consideration. The palladium lease rate has been rising, and the tight spot market supports the price. The demand side faces structural pressure. Although the long - term supply - demand is tending to be loose, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations support the price [3]. - Outlook: The spot shortage and the improvement of the macro - environment lead to a medium - and long - term shock - strong price expectation [3]. Commodity Index - Special Index: The commodity index was 2402.54, up 0.49%; the commodity 20 index was 2744.04, up 0.53%; the industrial products index was 2300.68, up 0.42%; the PPI commodity index was 1411.54, up 0.29% [48]. Non - ferrous Metals Index - On February 12, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2712.15, with a daily increase of 0.65%, a 5 - day increase of 2.29%, a 1 - month decrease of 4.99%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.97% [49].