宁证期货今日早评-20260213

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided. Core Views - The market may further wait for the clarity of the Fed's monetary policy, and silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations, with a mid - term outlook of high - level consolidation [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal are expected to remain healthy, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate widely due to capital sentiment [2]. - Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. - The downward space for hog prices is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - Palm oil prices are under pressure, and it is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - Soybean meal prices will stabilize and rebound in the short term, and pay attention to position risks before the Spring Festival [6]. - Rubber prices may fluctuate [8]. - Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in a high - level range [8]. - Methanol is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating pattern before the Spring Festival [9]. - Soda ash is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. - The bond market is bullish in the medium term but with weak short - term upward momentum [12]. - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PVC market prices are expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. - Steel prices may first decline and then rise after the Spring Festival [14]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Silver: The non - farm payroll data far exceeded expectations, but the precious metals market had limited fluctuations. Silver may follow gold's passive fluctuations and is expected to consolidate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - Gold: There are internal differences in the US on tariff policies, and geopolitical uncertainties still exist. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has weakened, which is negative for gold. Gold is expected to maintain a high - level consolidation in the medium term [13]. Energy - Crude Oil: Multiple reports point to an oversupply in the global oil market, and the growth rate of oil demand is lower than expected. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset [4]. Agricultural Products - Hog: The hog price is stable and slightly stronger. The downward space is limited, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts [5]. - Palm Oil: Malaysian palm oil export data is weak, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see before the Spring Festival [5]. - Soybean Meal: Although the overall inventory of oil mills is high, the supply of available contracts is tightening before the holiday, providing short - term support for the spot price. The price will stabilize and rebound in the short term [6]. Industrial Metals - Copper: Congo's copper production has increased, but there are uncertainties due to the complex political situation. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [8]. - Aluminum: The US tariff barrier has led to a supply shortage, which further strengthens the bottom support of aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival [9]. - Iron Ore: The inventory pressure is increasing, and the supply is affected by weather. The market has average expectations for post - holiday demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [12]. - PVC: PVC production is stable during the holiday, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [13]. - Steel (Rebar): The domestic steel market has entered the holiday mode, and the demand has stagnated. The steel price is stable before the holiday and may first decline and then rise after the holiday [14]. Chemicals - PTA: The demand is weak during the Spring Festival, and the supply - demand balance sheet shows inventory accumulation. PTA should be treated with a bearish and fluctuating mindset [6]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol production is at a high level, the downstream demand is decreasing, and the port inventory is slightly increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9]. - Soda Ash: The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and new production capacity is under pressure. It is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term [10]. Others - Long - term Treasury Bonds: Monetary easing is the main theme, and the bond market is bullish in the medium term. However, the short - term upward momentum is weak [12].