Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views - In the medium to long term, the policy's supportive attitude towards the capital market remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips. For the bond market, it is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend. For precious metals, they are in a high - level volatile pattern, and the market focus has shifted to the upcoming US CPI data. For various commodities, their price trends are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, seasonal factors, and policy impacts, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed for each commodity [4][7][9]. Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Category Index - Market Information: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations; the European Central Bank Executive Committee will expand the scope of application of the euro back - up financing mechanism; many car companies disclosed their solid - state battery technology paths and industrial plans; some companies made progress in 3D printing technology and PCB production [2]. - Basis Annualized Ratio: Presented the basis annualized ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods [3]. - Strategy View: Due to the intensifying divergence in US monetary policy expectations, the risk appetite of the capital market is suppressed, and the US stocks and precious metals are highly volatile. Domestically, the liquidity is tightened seasonally approaching the Spring Festival. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On February 13, the central bank conducted 100 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental scale of 50 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount. In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the average capital profit rate and average asset profit rate were 7.78% and 0.60% respectively. The central bank's net injection on Thursday was 44.8 billion yuan [5][6]. - Strategy View: The central bank emphasizes the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, and the capital market is expected to remain loose. The economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the bond market is expected to be in a strong and volatile trend [7]. Precious Metals - Market Information: On Thursday, precious metals tumbled. The decline was due to the decline of US technology stocks, investors' forced liquidation, and profit - taking. The US initial jobless claims and continuing jobless claims data were released, and the US existing home sales in January decreased by 8.4% month - on - month [8]. - Strategy View: Although short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, they are still in a high - level volatile pattern. The market is waiting for the US CPI data. The strategy is to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 950 - 1100 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: Before the domestic long holiday, funds were cautious. Overnight silver and US stocks declined, and copper prices fell after rising. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased [12][13]. - Strategy View: Although the market sentiment is affected by the decline of precious metals, the strong manufacturing in Europe and the US provides support. The copper price is expected to be in a high - level volatile pattern during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 99000 - 103000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 12500 - 13200 US dollars/ton for LME copper [14]. Aluminum - Market Information: The Mozambique aluminum smelter is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Aluminum prices rose and then fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [15]. - Strategy View: The domestic demand is weak, but the low LME inventory and high US aluminum spot premium support the price. The aluminum price is expected to be in a volatile and upward trend during the long holiday, with reference ranges of 23200 - 23600 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3050 - 3140 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [16]. Zinc - Market Information: The zinc index rose slightly. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory started to accumulate, and the downstream enterprise operation was average [17]. - Strategy View: The zinc mine inventory accumulation slowed down, and the zinc concentrate TC stabilized. Although the domestic zinc industry is weak, the strong US PMI may drive the zinc price to rise, and there is still a risk of price fluctuations during the Spring Festival [17][18]. Lead - Market Information: The lead index fell slightly. The lead ingot social inventory increased, and the waste battery inventory was higher than that in 2025 [19]. - Strategy View: The lead ore inventory is still higher than the same period in previous years, and the lead concentrate processing fee is low. The lead price is near the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and whether it can stabilize depends on the post - holiday restocking willingness of downstream enterprises [19]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price fluctuated. The spot premium of nickel was stable, and the nickel ore price was stable. The price of nickel iron rose slightly [20]. - Strategy View: After the second decline of precious metals and risk assets, there is a short - term rebound demand, but the nickel price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern due to fundamental pressure. The approved nickel ore production quota has little impact on the price, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 18,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [20]. Tin - Market Information: The tin price fluctuated. The smelter's production in Yunnan was stable, and that in Jiangxi was low due to the shortage of waste tin raw materials. The downstream demand was weak [21]. - Strategy View: The tin price may rebound with the stabilization of precious metals, but it is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply - demand and the increase in inventory. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton for the domestic main contract and 46,000 - 50,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The lithium carbonate spot index rose, and the futures price fell slightly. The inventory decreased [24]. - Strategy View: The supply has decreased, and the demand is expected to be strong. The short - term supply - demand pattern is tight. The upstream has more bargaining power after the holiday. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [25]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index fell slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The spot price in Shandong was at a discount to the main contract [26]. - Strategy View: There is a strike in the Guinea bauxite mine area, and the alumina smelting capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference range of 2750 - 3000 yuan/ton for the main contract AO2605 [27]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract fell. The spot price was stable, and the inventory increased [29]. - Strategy View: The supply pressure is controllable, and the demand is weak before the Spring Festival. It is recommended to buy on dips, with the reference range of 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton for the main contract [29]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The cast aluminum alloy price rebounded slightly, and the trading volume increased. The inventory increased [30]. - Strategy View: Although the demand is average, the price is supported by supply - side disturbances and seasonal raw material shortages [31]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased slightly. The rebar inventory started to accumulate, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased slightly [33]. - Strategy View: The carbon emission trading policy may increase the cost of the steel industry. The steel market is in a bottom - game stage, and it is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to inventory inflection points and policy changes [35]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore main contract fell slightly. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased [36]. - Strategy View: The overseas iron ore shipment is in the off - season, and the iron water production is in a recovery trend. The ore price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern before the festival. Attention should be paid to overseas shipments and domestic terminal demand after the festival [37]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Information: The prices of coking coal and coke fell slightly. The spot prices of coking coal and coke were at a premium to the futures prices [38]. - Strategy View: Overseas coal - related disturbances have a positive impact on sentiment, but the short - term upward drive of coking coal is not strong. The downstream replenishment is coming to an end, and there is a risk of price correction after the festival. Coking coal may have a better performance from June to October [40][42]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The glass main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the downstream demand was weak [44]. - Strategy View: The glass market is expected to be in a volatile and sorted pattern, with the reference range of 1030 - 1120 yuan/ton for the main contract [45]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The soda ash main contract fell. The inventory increased, and the demand for heavy soda ash was weak [46]. - Strategy View: The soda ash market is in a weak and stable volatile pattern, with the reference range of 1140 - 1230 yuan/ton for the main contract [46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell. The spot prices were at a premium to the futures prices [47]. - Strategy View: The long - term commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market sentiment is affected by precious metals. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is loose, and that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Attention should be paid to the cost push of manganese ore and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon [48][49]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon futures price fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak [50]. - Strategy View: The industrial silicon market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in February. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to market sentiment [51]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The polysilicon futures price fell. The supply decreased, and the inventory is expected to decrease slightly [52]. - Strategy View: The polysilicon market is expected to be in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see, and attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and spot prices [53]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price fluctuated with the commodity market. The tire enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [56][57]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival, trade short - term on the disk, and hold a hedging position during the festival [58]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The crude oil futures price rose slightly. The US crude oil commercial inventory increased, and the diesel and fuel oil inventories decreased [59]. - Strategy View: The current oil price has priced in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [61]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol spot price changed slightly, and the futures price decreased [62]. - Strategy View: Methanol has priced in many negative factors. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions and wait and see in the short term [63]. Urea - Market Information: The urea spot price was stable, and the futures price rose [64]. - Strategy View: The import window has opened, and the fundamental outlook is negative. It is recommended to short - sell [65]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [66]. - Strategy View: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term price is supported by electricity price expectations and export rush, and attention should be paid to capacity and operating rate changes [67]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The ethylene glycol futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [68]. - Strategy View: The ethylene glycol market needs to reduce production to improve the supply - demand pattern. There is a risk of price rebound due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebound [69]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The inventory increased [70]. - Strategy View: The PTA market is in the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to be stable at a high level, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips after the Spring Festival [71]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The p - xylene futures price fell. The supply was high, and the demand from downstream PTA was weak. The inventory increased [72]. - Strategy View: The p - xylene market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The valuation is expected to rise after the Spring Festival, and there is an opportunity to buy on dips following the crude oil price [73][74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price fluctuated. The trading volume decreased approaching the Spring Festival [76]. - Strategy View: The short - term pig price is under pressure due to large supply and high inventory. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies. The long - term price may be supported by seasonal factors and demand recovery [77]. Eggs - Market Information: The egg price was stable in most markets approaching the Spring Festival [78]. - Strategy View: The egg market is in the inventory - accumulation period. The short - term price is under pressure, and it is recommended to short - sell. The long - term price trend depends on capacity reduction [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the rapeseed meal price rose. The global soybean supply and demand were slightly adjusted in the USDA report [80]. - Strategy View: The short - term protein meal price is expected to be in a volatile pattern due to the increase in US soybean procurement expectations and the rise in import costs [81]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The domestic soybean oil price rose, the palm oil price fell, and the rapeseed oil price was stable. The global palm oil supply and demand data were released [82][83]. - Strategy View: The consumption growth of oils and fats is greater than the production growth this year. It is recommended to wait for a pull - back to go long [84]. Sugar - Market Information: The domestic sugar price fell. The domestic and foreign sugar production and sales data were released [85][86]. - Strategy View: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest is completed. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see [87]. Cotton - Market Information: The domestic cotton price rose. The domestic and foreign cotton supply and demand data were released in the USDA report [88][89]. - Strategy View: The USDA report is neutral. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower edge of the shock range after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy [90].
宏观金融类：文字早评2026/02/13星期五-20260213
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2026-02-13 01:49