五矿期货有色金属日报-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The sentiment in the precious metals market has a negative impact on the overall market, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide some support. The copper market shows a tight supply of copper ore and a relatively sufficient supply of refined copper, with copper prices expected to remain range - bound at high levels during the holiday. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate with an upward bias due to stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals. The lead market is currently in a weak state, and whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival. The zinc industry is also weak, but zinc prices may rise following the non - ferrous metal sector due to positive macro - economic expectations. Tin prices are expected to trade in a wide range, and short - term operations are recommended to wait and see. Nickel prices are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to remain tight in the short term, and upstream producers may have more bargaining power. Alumina prices are recommended to be observed, and the key lies in the impact of disruptions in Guinea's mining and the alleviation of high domestic supply pressure. Stainless steel maintains a strategy of buying on dips. Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [5][8][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28] Summary by Metal Copper - Market Information: Overnight silver and US stocks declined, causing copper prices to rise first and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 2.9% at $12,855/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 100,030 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons. Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased slightly. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to futures, and the import of SHFE copper was at a loss of over 900 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 3,100 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly [4] - Strategy Viewpoint: The decline in precious metals dampens market sentiment, but the relatively strong manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe provide support. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the supply of refined copper is relatively sufficient. During the long holiday, copper prices are expected to remain range - bound at high levels. Today, the reference range for SHFE copper's main contract is 99,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $12,500 - 13,200/ton [5] Aluminum - Market Information: The aluminum smelter in Mozambique is expected to shut down for maintenance in March. Precious metals and US stocks declined, causing aluminum prices to rise first and then fall. LME aluminum closed down 0.63% at $3,097/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 23,395 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum's weighted contract positions decreased by 16,000 to 647,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 33,000 to 201,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories increased, the processing fee for aluminum bars continued to rebound, and the market entered a holiday state. The spot in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to futures, and LME aluminum inventories decreased by 2,200 tons to 484,000 tons [7] - Strategy Viewpoint: Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum bar inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream demand is weak in the off - season. LME aluminum inventories remain at a relatively low level, and the high premium of US aluminum in the spot market provides strong support for aluminum prices. With stronger overseas supply - demand fundamentals, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias during the long holiday. Today, the reference range for SHFE aluminum's main contract is 23,200 - 23,600 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [8] Lead - Market Information: On Thursday, the SHFE lead index closed 0.29% lower at 16,705 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 120,100 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME lead 3S rose $8 to $1,986/ton, with a total open interest of 175,900 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,575 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The inventory of lead ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 53,000 tons, and the domestic primary basis was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 233,000 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 16,100 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 57,400 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from February 9 [9] - Strategy Viewpoint: The visible inventory of lead ore has declined slightly but is still higher than the same period in previous years. The processing fee for lead concentrates remains at a low level. The inventory of waste batteries continues to rise, higher than in 2025. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate of smelters declines seasonally. Lead ingot social inventories continue to accumulate, and the domestic industry is currently in a weak state. Current lead prices are close to the lower end of the long - term trading range, but downstream consumption is mediocre. Whether lead prices can stabilize depends on the restocking willingness of downstream battery manufacturers after the Spring Festival [10] Zinc - Market Information: On Thursday, the SHFE zinc index closed 0.18% higher at 24,678 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 193,900 lots. As of 15:00 on Thursday, LME zinc 3S rose $8 to $3,424.5/ton, with a total open interest of 235,500 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,480 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingot futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 43,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,300 tons. The social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 138,100 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from February 9 [11] - Strategy Viewpoint: The accumulation of visible zinc ore inventory has slowed down, and the TC of zinc concentrates has stopped falling and stabilized. Domestic zinc ingot social inventories have started to accumulate. The operating performance of downstream enterprises is mediocre, and the finished - product inventories of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises have increased rapidly. The domestic zinc industry is in a weak state. However, short - term funds are greatly affected by macro - economic sentiment. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, there is still a risk of abnormal price movements in non - ferrous metals during the holiday. The strong US PMI has boosted market expectations of a recovery in consumption, which may drive zinc prices to rise following the non - ferrous metal sector [12] Tin - Market Information: On February 12, tin prices fluctuated. The main SHFE tin contract closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86% from the previous day. In terms of supply, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan remained stable at a high level last week, while the refined tin output in Jiangxi was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. However, the upward momentum was insufficient after the two regions resumed from maintenance, and there were constraints on the scrap side and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply is difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, although the price decline has released some rigid procurement demand and spot trading has improved slightly, the overall price is still at a high level, and downstream restocking willingness before the festival is still not obvious, with most adopting a cautious wait - and - see attitude. Coupled with the cost pressure on end - user industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the upward transmission speed of demand is slow, and the actual support for the spot market is limited [13] - Strategy Viewpoint: After the second decline in precious metals prices, there are signs of stabilization, and tin prices may rebound accordingly. Although tin prices still maintain an upward trend in the medium - to - long - term, in the short term, with the marginal easing of tin ingot supply - demand and the steady increase in inventory recently, there is also pressure for a significant increase. It is expected that tin prices will mainly trade in a wide range. In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract is 350,000 - 410,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $46,000 - 50,000/ton [14] Nickel - Market Information: On February 12, nickel prices fluctuated. The main SHFE nickel contract closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums of various brands remained stable. The average premium of Russian nickel to the nearby contract was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan/ton, also unchanged. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron averaged 1,048 yuan/nickel point, up 0.5 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [15] - Strategy Viewpoint: After the second decline in precious metals and risk - asset prices, there are signs of stabilization, with short - term rebound demand. However, nickel still faces fundamental pressure, and short - term nickel prices are expected to mainly trade in a wide range. On the evening of February 10, Tri Winarno, the Director - General of Minerals and Coal at the ESDM Ministry, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 260 million and 270 million tons, which is close to market expectations and is expected to have a limited impact on nickel prices. The reference trading range for SHFE nickel prices is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M contracts, it is $16,000 - 18,000/ton [16] Lithium Carbonate - Market Information: The MMLC lithium carbonate spot index closed at 142,316 yuan in the evening session, up 2.30% from the previous working day. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 3,200 yuan (+2.29%) to 138,800 - 146,700 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.31%. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 149,420 yuan, down 0.56% from the previous day's closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,200 yuan. The SMM weekly inventory was 102,932 tons, down 2,531 tons (-2.4%) from the previous week, with a decrease of 1,436 tons in the upstream and 1,095 tons in the downstream and other sectors [18] - Strategy Viewpoint: On Thursday, the futures market adjusted, and the Wenhua Commodity Index fell 0.22%. On the supply side, the weekly output of domestic lithium carbonate has decreased by about 10.7% from the peak. On the demand side, the demand expectation is strong, and the production schedule of the material sector in March is expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the short - term supply - demand tightness of domestic lithium carbonate will continue. If there is no unexpected supply recovery in the mining sector, upstream producers will have more bargaining power in the post - holiday spot market. In the future, attention should be paid to the atmosphere in the commodity market, the resumption progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi, and the changes in the tradable inventory of salt plants and traders. Today, the reference trading range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 143,000 - 157,000 yuan/ton [19] Alumina - Market Information: On February 12, 2026, as of 15:00, the alumina index fell 0.29% to 2,812 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 441,800 lots, a decrease of 16,000 lots from the previous trading day. In terms of basis, the spot price in Shandong remained at 2,555 yuan/ton, at a discount of 253 yuan/ton to the main contract [21] - Strategy Viewpoint: At the mining end, workers at a mine in the Boké region of Guinea have launched an indefinite strike. This region is the core area for Guinea's bauxite. It is necessary to observe whether the impact of the strike will expand. Currently, production and shipping are normal. The over - capacity situation at the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although there have been more capacity maintenance recently, the overall output is still at a high level. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The key to future price trends lies in whether the disturbances at the Guinea mining end can materialize and whether the high domestic supply pressure can be effectively alleviated through policies or market means. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,750 - 3,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to domestic supply - reduction policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy [22] Stainless Steel - Market Information: At 15:00 on Thursday, the main stainless - steel contract closed at 13,970 yuan/ton, down 1.24% (-174) from the previous day, with an open interest of 198,500 lots, a decrease of 6,938 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the price of Delong 304 cold - rolled coil in the Foshan market remained at 14,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil in the Wuxi market remained at 14,150 yuan/ton. The Foshan basis was - 240 (-300), and the Wuxi basis was - 90 (-300). The price of Hongwang 201 in Foshan was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the price of Hongwang annealed 430 was 7,750 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. In terms of raw materials, the ex - factory price of high - nickel pig iron in Shandong was 1,040 yuan/nickel, and the recycling price of 304 scrap steel industrial materials in Baoding was 9,000 yuan/ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The high - carbon ferrochrome price in the northern main - producing area was 8,550 yuan/50 - base ton, also unchanged. The futures inventory was 55,253 tons, an increase of 762 tons from the previous day. As of February 6, social inventories increased to 914,200 tons, a 1.07% increase from the previous period, with the 300 - series inventory at 632,000 tons, a 2.49% increase [24] - Strategy Viewpoint: From the supply side, although the supply of raw materials has recovered, under the influence of the steel mill's price - limit policy, the shipment rhythm of agents has generally slowed down. On the demand side, restricted by the pre - Spring Festival seasonal off - season, the overall market purchasing willingness is not strong, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is limited. Traders mostly choose to actively sell goods, reduce inventory, and mainly execute previous orders, with weak willingness to actively stock up. Steel mills will cut production collectively in February, and the market generally believes that the subsequent supply will gradually tighten, and the short - term supply pressure is relatively controllable. Overall, the stainless - steel fundamentals still have support, and the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged. The reference range for the main contract is 13,500 - 14,500 yuan/ton [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: Yesterday, the price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded slightly. The main AD2604 contract closed 0.25% higher at 22,260 yuan/ton (as of 15:00). The weighted contract positions decreased to 23,400 lots, and the trading volume was 11,200 lots, with increased trading volume. Warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 66,600 tons. The price difference between the AL2604 and AD2604 contracts was 1,430 yuan/ton, narrowing compared to the previous period. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 remained stable, and the