国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - Multiple energy - chemical products are in different market trends. Some are in shock operation, some are showing price increases or decreases, and some are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and geopolitical situations [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rubber - Market Trend: Oscillating [2][4] - Fundamentals: Overseas supply in Vietnam is tightening, and Thailand is in the seasonal production - reduction cycle. Downstream tire enterprise capacity utilization has decreased significantly, and demand is weak. Qingdao inventory is high and shows a seasonal accumulation trend [4][7][8] Synthetic Rubber - Market Trend: Oscillating before the festival [2][9] - Fundamentals: Futures prices, trading volumes, and positions have all decreased. The inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber has increased, and the inventory of butadiene in East China ports has decreased [9][10] LLDPE - Market Trend: Northeast Asian ethylene bottoms out, and it is in a shock market due to pre - festival capital risk - aversion [2][12] - Fundamentals: Crude oil prices fall and stabilize, ethylene monomer is weak, downstream demand is weakening, and the supply - side inventory transfer before the Spring Festival leads to a temporary lack of fundamental contradictions [12][13] PP - Market Trend: C3 raw materials are strong, and valuation repair is limited [2][15] - Fundamentals: Cost - side crude oil and propane prices are strong, supply - side new production before the 2605 contract is limited, and demand - side downstream new orders are mainly for rigid needs [15][16] Caustic Soda - Market Trend: Stronger shock due to cost increase [2][18] - Fundamentals: The short - term strength of liquid chlorine may not be sustainable, leading to an increase in caustic soda costs. Demand is weak, and there are expectations of production reduction and load reduction in March [20] Pulp - Market Trend: Oscillating [2][23] - Fundamentals: As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading volume of imported pulp spot market decreases, and prices are stable. Downstream paper mills' raw material replenishment is basically completed, and port inventory is accumulating [26][27] Glass - Market Trend: The original sheet price is stable [2][28] - Fundamentals: As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream's procurement volume of the original sheet decreases, and the float glass factory has no motivation to adjust prices. Market demand declines, and trading is light [29] Methanol - Market Trend: Oscillating [2][31] - Fundamentals: The port methanol market fluctuates narrowly, and the inventory accumulates slightly. The inland price rises slightly. The overall fundamental driving force is neutral to downward, and there is cost support at the bottom [34][35] Urea - Market Trend: The price center moves up [2][37] - Fundamentals: The inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreases slightly. Before the festival, there is support from spot transactions and strong expectations of agricultural spring plowing demand [39][40] Styrene - Market Trend: High - level shock [2][42] - Fundamentals: Capital withdraws, and the absolute price is in a high - level shock. Styrene profits are at a high level in recent years, and attention should be paid to the restart progress of some devices after the festival [42] Soda Ash - Market Trend: The spot market has little change [2][43] - Fundamentals: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable, with stable enterprise device operation, high - level supply, and weak downstream demand after pre - festival stocking [44] LPG - Market Trend: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward [2][47] - Fundamentals: There are geopolitical disturbances, and the trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts show different changes. The operating rates of some industrial chains change [48] Propylene - Market Trend: Supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the spot price is stable [2][48] - Fundamentals: The trading volume, position, and price of futures contracts change, and the operating rates of related industrial chains are stable [48] PVC - Market Trend: Weak shock [2][60] - Fundamentals: The commodity market sentiment weakens, PVC supply and demand are weak, exports decline, and inventory accumulates. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change [59][60] Fuel Oil - Market Trend: Narrow - range adjustment, short - term stronger than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][62] - Fundamentals: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil futures contracts change, and the spot prices in different regions also change [62] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Trend: Weakens at night, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [2][62] - Fundamentals: Similar to fuel oil, with changes in futures and spot prices [62] Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Market Trend: Shock market, hold a light position during the festival [2][64] - Fundamentals: Futures prices decline, spot freight rates are stable before the festival. Geopolitical factors have little impact on the European line. The 2604 contract has a weak supply - demand balance, and the 2606 contract has uncertainties in the resumption of navigation rhythm [64][73] Short - Fiber - Market Trend: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - Fundamentals: Futures prices decline, spot prices are stable, downstream demand is weak, and the production - sales rate decreases [76] Bottle Chip - Market Trend: Short - term shock market, reduce long positions when the price is high [2][76] - Fundamentals: Futures prices decline, upstream raw materials fluctuate and fall, and the market trading atmosphere is light [76][77] Offset Printing Paper - Market Trend: Wait and see before the festival [2][79] - Fundamentals: Spot prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, paper enterprises' production and sales are general, and downstream demand is weak [79][80][82] Pure Benzene - Market Trend: Stronger shock [2][83] - Fundamentals: Futures prices decline slightly, port inventory decreases slightly, and spot prices rise slightly [83][84][85]