国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Bearish, with an expected downward trend due to weakening demand [2][4] - Rebar: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][6] - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][6] - Ferrosilicon: Bearish - leaning, expected to have a weakening trend [2][10] - Ferromanganese: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][10] - Coke: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][13] - Coking coal: Neutral, expected to trade in a wide range [2][13] - Logs: Neutral, expected to trade within a range [2][17] 2. Core Views - The market trends of various black - series commodities are affected by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, production data, and macro - economic indicators. Different products have different trend outlooks based on their specific fundamentals [4][6][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The closing price of I2605 was 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (-0.07%), and the position decreased by 9,039 hands. Spot prices of various iron ore types remained unchanged. The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In January, CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, and PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month but fell 1.4% year - on - year. China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [4]. Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - Price and Position Data: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,050 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.23%), and the position decreased by 34,123 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,218 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.31%), and the position decreased by 18,682 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The trend intensity for both is 0 [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 5, steel production data showed declines in rebar and hot - rolled coil output, increases in inventory, and decreases in apparent demand. In late January 2026, key steel enterprises' production and inventory data showed mixed changes. BHP's iron ore production hit a record high, and China's steel import data in December 2025 was released. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Price and Position Data: For silicon iron, contracts 2603 and 2605 prices decreased. For manganese silicon, contracts 2603 and 2605 prices also decreased. Spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon were given, along with various price differences. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10][11]. - Macro and Industry News: A silicon - manganese plant in Inner Mongolia had new capacity ignition, and Jupiter may not supply and quote manganese ore to China in March [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - Price and Position Data: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,120 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.3%), and the closing price of J2605 was 1,664 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.2%). Spot prices of coking coal and coke had different changes. The trend intensity for both is 0 [13]. - Macro and Industry News: On February 12, CCI metallurgical coal index data was released, and the coking coal online auction had a 33% failure rate, with an average premium of 7.67 yuan/ton [13]. Logs - Price and Position Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log contracts showed various changes, and spot prices of different types of logs in different markets remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [17]. - Macro and Industry News: In January, CPI and PPI data were released, and China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3 [19].