国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold is expected to oscillate and rebound; silver is likely to decline from its high level [2]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to increased overseas disturbances [2]. - Zinc prices will fluctuate following macro - economic trends [2]. - Lead prices are under pressure due to an increase in domestic inventory [2]. - It is recommended to control positions in tin before the holiday [2]. - Aluminum prices will decline slightly; alumina will operate weakly; cast aluminum alloy will follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum prices are dragged down by the U.S. stock market; palladium in the precious metals sector shows signs of weakness and retreats [2]. - Nickel prices will fluctuate widely due to the game between news from Indonesia and the Philippines; stainless - steel prices will see an upward shift in the cost - support center due to frequent maintenance and production cuts in February [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold and Silver - Price Performance: Gold and silver prices showed declines. For example, Comex gold 2602 dropped 3.26%, and Comex silver 2602 fell 10.79% [5]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interests of gold and silver futures contracts had different changes. For instance, the trading volume of沪金2602 increased by 28,688, while its open interest decreased by 5,958 [5]. - ETF and Inventory: SPDR gold ETF and SLV silver ETF holdings decreased. Gold and silver inventories in Comex and Shanghai Futures Exchange also had corresponding changes [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is 0; silver trend intensity is 1 [8]. - Platinum and Palladium - Price Performance: Platinum and palladium prices declined. For example, New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) dropped 5.28%, and New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) fell 5.27% [27]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interests of platinum and palladium futures contracts had different changes. For example, the trading volume of NYMEX platinum increased by 1,760, while its open interest decreased by 365 [27]. - ETF and Inventory: Platinum and palladium ETF holdings decreased. Inventories in NYMEX platinum and palladium remained unchanged [27]. - Trend Intensity: Platinum trend intensity is 0; palladium trend intensity is 0 [30]. Base Metals - Copper - Price Performance: Copper prices were under pressure. The Shanghai copper main - contract closed at 102,330 with a 0.15% daily increase, but the night - session price dropped 2.25%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk price fell 2.90% [9]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index increased by 49,638, and its open interest decreased by 7,381. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk trading volume decreased by 4,377, and its open interest decreased by 3,871 [9]. - Inventory and Spread: Copper inventories in Shanghai and LME increased. Spreads such as LME copper basis and spot - to - futures spreads had corresponding changes [9]. - News: Before the release of U.S. CPI data, AI panic escalated, causing a decline in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies. Anglo American's copper production in Q4 2025 decreased by 14% year - on - year [9]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0 [11]. - Zinc - Price Performance: Zinc prices fluctuated following the macro - economic trend. The Shanghai zinc main - contract closed at 24,670 with a 0.12% increase, and the LME zinc 3M electronic - disk price increased 0.59% [12]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main - contract increased by 20,594, and its open interest increased by 3,215. The LME zinc trading volume increased by 2,795, and its open interest decreased by 7,690 [12]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai zinc futures inventory increased by 725 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,750 tons. Spreads such as Shanghai 0 zinc basis and LME CASH - 3M basis had corresponding changes [12]. - News: China introduced new regulations on the automobile industry price. The U.S. Treasury Secretary agreed to transfer the Powell investigation to the Senate [13]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is 0 [15]. - Lead - Price Performance: Lead prices were under pressure due to increased domestic inventory. The Shanghai lead main - contract closed at 16,700 with a 0.33% decrease, while the LME lead 3M electronic - disk price increased 0.86% [16]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main - contract increased by 8,120, and its open interest increased by 1,748. The LME lead trading volume increased by 19, and its open interest increased by 1,494 [16]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai lead futures inventory increased by 6,501 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 50 tons. Spreads such as Shanghai 1 lead basis and LME CASH - 3M basis had corresponding changes [16]. - News: Before the release of U.S. CPI data, AI panic escalated, causing a decline in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [17]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is 0 [17]. - Tin - Price Performance: The Shanghai tin main - contract closed at 391,320 with a 0.88% increase, but the night - session price dropped 4.27%. The LME tin 3M electronic - disk price fell 4.52% [20]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main - contract decreased by 80,098, and its open interest decreased by 3,027. The LME tin trading volume increased by 130, and its open interest decreased by 737 [20]. - Inventory and Spread: Shanghai tin futures inventory increased by 3,780 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 60 tons. Spreads such as LME tin (spot/three - month) basis and spot - to - futures basis had corresponding changes [20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is - 1 [21]. - Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price Performance: Aluminum prices declined slightly; alumina operated weakly; cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. For example, the Shanghai aluminum main - contract closed at 23,610, down 50 from the previous day [23]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interests of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures contracts had different changes [23]. - Inventory and Spread: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy inventories and spreads had corresponding changes [23]. - News: The global market is experiencing a "major change", with funds flowing from crowded U.S. tech stocks to emerging markets, commodities, and value stocks. A U.S. - Japan $550 billion investment fund is about to be launched [25]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0; alumina trend intensity is - 1; cast aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [25]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price Performance: Nickel prices fluctuated widely due to the game between news from Indonesia and the Philippines. Stainless - steel prices saw an upward shift in the cost - support center due to frequent maintenance and production cuts in February. For example, the Shanghai nickel main - contract closed at 139,610, up 250 from the previous day [32]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: Trading volumes and open interests of nickel and stainless - steel futures contracts had different changes [32]. - Industry Chain Data: Data such as nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, nickel plate import profit, and stainless - steel product prices had corresponding changes [32]. - News: Indonesia has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses. The Indonesian government will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore. Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines [32][33]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0; stainless - steel trend intensity is 0 [36].