中辉有色观点-20260213

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [1] - Silver: Neutral, waiting for volatility to decline [1] - Copper: Bearish, recommending to hold short positions over the holiday [1] - Zinc: Bearish, suggesting to hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday [1] - Lead: Bearish, under pressure [1] - Tin: Bearish, under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Bearish, under pressure [1] - Nickel: Bearish, under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Neutral, wide - range fluctuations, suggesting to avoid positions over the holiday [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, suggesting to go long on dips [1] Core Views - Gold: Short - term price adjustments are due to factors such as the decline in US stocks and the emphasis on the Fed's independence. In the long - term, the strategic allocation value remains due to geopolitical uncertainties and central bank gold purchases [1] - Silver: There are short - term adjustments due to capital outflows, but there is a long - term supply - demand gap [1] - Copper: With the approaching holiday, external risks increase, and it is recommended to hold short positions over the holiday [1][6] - Zinc: As the Spring Festival approaches, demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. It is recommended to hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday [1][10] - Lead: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory is accumulating, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Aluminum: Overseas bauxite prices are under pressure, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is weak, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Indonesian production quota cuts and high domestic inventory with weak consumption keep the price under short - term pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Supply and demand have slightly improved, but with the approaching holiday, market trading is light, and it is recommended to avoid positions [1] - Polysilicon: There is inventory accumulation pressure, and it is recommended to participate with caution [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The fundamentals are strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips after stabilization [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Market Performance: SHFE gold closed at 1126.12, down 0.38% from the previous value, and up 3.30% from last week; COMEX gold closed at 4941, down 3.26% from the previous value, and down 2.81% from last week [2] - Driving Factors: Short - term price drops are due to US stock declines and algorithmic trading selling. Long - term support comes from central bank purchases, de - dollarization, and policy uncertainties [1][3] - Investment Strategy: Stabilize and go long on dips, and pay attention to the adjustment range. Domestically, pay attention to the support near 1060 [1][3] Silver - Market Performance: SHFE silver closed at 20626, down 1.52% from the previous value, and up 9.72% from last week; COMEX silver closed at 75, down 10.79% from the previous value, and down 9.68% from last week [2] - Driving Factors: Short - term price drops are due to capital outflows. Long - term support comes from a continuous 5 - year supply - demand gap and large - scale fiscal policies [1] - Investment Strategy: Wait for volatility to decline, pay attention to the support near 19000 [1][3] Copper - Market Performance: The closing price of SHFE copper was 100030 yuan/ton, down 2.58%; LME copper was 12856 dollars/ton, down 2.90%; COMEX copper was 599 dollars/pound, up 1.41% [4] - Driving Factors: Global copper ore supply is tight, and downstream demand is weak during the holiday season. COMEX copper inventory is de - stocking [5][6] - Investment Strategy: Short positions over the holiday. Short - term, SHFE copper focuses on the range of [98000, 102000] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [12500, 13000] dollars/ton [6] Zinc - Market Performance: The closing price of SHFE zinc was 24435 yuan/ton, down 0.63%; LME zinc was 3381.5 dollars/ton, down 1.07% [8] - Driving Factors: In 2026, global zinc ore supply may shrink. As the holiday approaches, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [9] - Investment Strategy: Reduce positions in the short - term, hold cash and avoid positions over the holiday. In the long - term, go long on dips. SHFE zinc focuses on the range of [24000, 25000], and LME zinc focuses on [3380, 3480] dollars/ton [10] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of LME aluminum was 3124.5 dollars/ton, up 0.24%; SHFE aluminum was 23610 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; alumina was 2808 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [11] - Driving Factors: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues in 2026. Aluminum inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is weak. Alumina supply is in excess [13] - Investment Strategy: Take profits and wait and see in the short - term. Pay attention to inventory accumulation. The main operating range of SHFE aluminum is [22000 - 25100] [14] Nickel - Market Performance: The closing price of LME nickel was 17910 dollars/ton, down 0.86%; SHFE nickel was 140160 yuan/ton, up 0.11%; stainless steel was 13970 yuan/ton, down 0.50% [15] - Driving Factors: Indonesia will cut nickel ore production quotas in 2026, and domestic inventory is high with weak consumption. Stainless steel inventory is accumulating in the off - season [17] - Investment Strategy: Take profits and wait and see. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless - steel inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 150000] [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main contract LC2605 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, failing to hold above the 150,000 - yuan mark [20] - Driving Factors: The external market is warming up. The fundamentals are strong, and inventory is decreasing in the off - season [21] - Investment Strategy: Go long on dips after stabilization in the range of [145000 - 156000] [22]