宝城期货国债期货早报（2026年2月13日）-20260213

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening", with an overall view of "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The main reason for the weakening of the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is that as the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds matures and falls to around 1.8%, and the liquidity tightens approaching the Spring Festival, the willingness of funds to take profits increases. Although the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low, there are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations. Overall, the upward and downward momentum of Treasury bond futures is limited, and they will mainly be in oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the variety TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weakening", and the view is "oscillatory consolidation". The core logic is the low possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties are TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillatory consolidation". The upward momentum of Treasury bond futures weakens due to the 10 - year Treasury bond yield falling to around 1.8% and approaching Spring Festival liquidity tightness. There are still medium - and long - term interest rate cut expectations despite the low short - term possibility. Overall, Treasury bond futures will be in short - term oscillatory consolidation [5].