资讯早班车-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic data shows a mixed picture. GDP growth slowed down, while some indicators like M1 and M2 had different trends. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were below 50, indicating a contraction in the relevant sectors [1]. - In the commodity market, there are various developments such as anti - subsidy tax on EU dairy products, potential changes in Trump's tariff policy, and price movements in different commodities like rare earths and metals [2][6]. - In the financial market, the central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the bond market showed a mixed performance with different trends in yields and prices [14][23]. - The stock market had a narrow - range consolidation in A - shares, while the Hong Kong stock market declined. Newly - issued public funds had a large scale this year [32][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q4 2025 was 4.5% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter and the same period last year [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in January 2026 was 49.3%, and non - manufacturing PMI: business activity was 49.4%, both showing a contraction [1]. - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [1]. - CPI in January 2026 was 0.2% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but lower than the same period last year; PPI was - 1.4% year - on - year, showing an improvement compared to the previous month and the same period last year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - From February 13, 2026, anti - subsidy tax will be imposed on imported dairy products from the EU [2]. - Trump's tariff policy faces major uncertainties as the US House of Representatives passed a resolution against his tariff on Canada [2]. - On February 12, 2026, 36 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 31 had negative basis [3]. - CME plans to set up aluminum warehouses in Taiwan and Hong Kong to compete with LME in the Asian market [3]. - Thailand Futures Exchange suspended the temporary online trading of silver futures [4]. - CME plans to launch four South Asian edible oil futures contracts on March 2, 2026, subject to regulatory approval [4]. 3.2.2 Metals - Since the beginning of 2026, rare earth prices have risen strongly. On February 12, the rare earth price index was 290, up 33.64% from December 31, 2025 [6]. - South Africa's gold production in December 2025 increased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the total mining output increased by 2.5% [6]. - On February 11, 2026, copper inventory reached a 9 - month high, while zinc inventory reached a 1 - month low [7]. - Ghana's gold production in 2025 reached a record high of 6 million ounces, and the target for 2026 is 6.5 million ounces, but the royalty plan poses a threat [7]. - As of February 12, 2026, the gold holding of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 0.48% from the previous trading day [7]. - As of the end of January 2026, China's central bank's gold reserves increased by 1.24 tons month - on - month, and global central banks' net gold purchases in 2025 decreased compared to 2024 [8]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - A leading mining company expects the nickel ore export volume from the Philippines to Indonesia to double to 30 million tons this year [10]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - In 2025, China's new installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 430 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity accounted for 47.3% of the total, exceeding thermal power [11]. - The US controls the sale of Venezuelan oil, with cumulative sales exceeding one billion dollars and expected future income of about five billion dollars [11]. - The US and Venezuela are expected to carry out large - scale cooperation [12]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - The Indonesian Palm Oil Association expects the production of crude palm oil in 2026 to increase by 2% - 3% year - on - year [13]. - Brazil's soybean production in the current period is 177.99 million tons, with an increase in yield [13]. - US exporters sold 108,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/2026 fiscal year [13]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On February 12, 2026, the central bank carried out 1665 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 4000 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4480 billion yuan [14][15]. - On February 13, 2026, the central bank will carry out 1 trillion yuan of 6 - month buy - out reverse repurchase operations, with an incremental roll - over of 5000 billion yuan [15]. 3.3.2 Key News - Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and the Sino - US trade "cease - fire" is expected to be extended [16]. - The US House of Representatives passed a resolution against Trump's tariff on Canada [16]. - The Chinese government supports Chinese enterprises in safeguarding their legitimate rights and interests in the case of the Dutch investigation of Nexperia [16]. - The Chinese government will launch a policy package during the Spring Festival to promote consumption, with a focus on trade - in programs [17]. - The market supervision department issued a compliance guide for the automobile industry's price behavior [18]. - Many places require food delivery platforms to stop "involution - style" competition [18]. - In January 2026, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, while the export of new - energy passenger cars increased by 103.6% [18]. - In 2025, commercial banks' net profit was 2.4 trillion yuan, and the banking and insurance industries' assets increased [18]. - In 2025, real estate enterprises' bond financing increased by 5.6% year - on - year [19]. - Shanghai will expand financial opening - up and improve relevant mechanisms [19]. - On February 12, 2026, the on - shore and off - shore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose, and the central parity rate was adjusted down [19]. - Shanghai Tongliang Private Fund was severely warned for "self - financing" behavior [20]. - The US Treasury Secretary agreed to transfer the investigation power of the Fed Chairman to the Senate Banking Committee [20]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, while the number of continued jobless claims increased [20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market in China was warm, with falling yields of interest - rate bonds and narrow - range fluctuations in bond futures [23]. - In the exchange - traded bond market, some bonds rose while others fell, and the real - estate bond index declined [24]. - The convertible bond index rose, and the money market interest rates showed different trends [25]. - Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the repurchase fixed - rate showed differentiation [26][27]. - European and US bond yields all declined [27]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose on February 12, 2026, and the central parity rate was adjusted down [28]. - The US dollar index fell slightly, and non - US currencies showed different trends [28]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the RMB is expected to appreciate in 2026, and the loan proportion in Q1 2026 may decline [29]. - CITIC Securities believes that CPI and PPI have a marginal impact on the bond market, and the bond market may show a trend of first falling and then rising in 2026 [30]. - Shenwan Fixed - Income believes that the bond market may enter a stage of narrowing spreads, and there may be a diversion of funds from the bond market to the equity market [30]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On February 13, 2026, 194 bonds will be listed, 4 bonds will be issued, 20 bonds will make payments, and 99 bonds will pay principal and interest [31]. 3.4 Stock Market - On Thursday, A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.05%, and the computing power industry chain and some concept stocks performing strongly [32]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.86%, and large - scale technology stocks declined [33]. - The newly - issued scale of public funds this year has exceeded 200 billion yuan, with partial - stock hybrid funds and hybrid FOFs being the most prominent [33].