宝城期货煤焦早报（2026年2月13日）-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term (within a week), the short - term view of coking coal 2605 is "oscillation", the short - term view of coke 2605 is also "oscillation"; for the medium - term (two weeks to one month), both coking coal 2605 and coke 2605 are in "oscillation"; for the intraday, coking coal 2605 is "strong", and coke 2605 is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view for both coking coal and coke is "oscillation" [1] - It is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival, and the coke main contract will also maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50% [5] - Supply and Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines stop production for holidays, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises' coal inventories have been replenished to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the Spring Festival. The long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - Market Outlook: In the context of a lack of long - term driving factors, it is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5] - Potential Positive Factors: Uncertainties in the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; possible new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [5] 3.2 Coke - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Supply and Demand: There has been no significant change in the coke fundamentals recently. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties: "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]