宝城期货甲醇早报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2605 contract will show a weak - running trend, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak. The core logic is that although overseas supply "hard contraction" provides support, the approaching Spring Festival makes the market cautious, reducing risk preference and leading to a weak - oscillatory trend in methanol futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term: The medium - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The intraday view of methanol 2605 is weak, and it is expected to run weakly [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - Positive Factor: Overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level within the year. China's imports may decline significantly in January and February, resulting in tight external supply [5]. - Negative Factor: As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading becomes more cautious, risk preference decreases, causing the domestic methanol futures to show a weak - oscillatory trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5].