天然橡胶日度策略报告-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content, so it is skipped. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US dollar rose and then fell after the US January non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations but was lower than expected for the whole of 2025. The rubber futures price followed the rebound of commodities this week. Before the Spring Festival holiday, capital adjustment led to wide - range market fluctuations. The data showed economic weakness, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation rebounded [3]. - Overseas rubber - producing areas entered the seasonal production - reduction season, with strong willingness of factories to purchase at higher prices, and raw material prices continued to rise, providing strong cost - side support. The raw material supply was relatively tight during the transition to the off - season, and the purchase price increased significantly [3]. - As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory increased, and the inventory in Qingdao increased due to the arrival volume. In the future, the rainfall in the Southeast Asian main rubber - producing areas will decrease, and the impact on rubber tapping will weaken [3]. - In February before the Spring Festival, the commodity market fluctuated significantly. Currently, the supply of rubber in the producing areas is stable, and raw material prices are stable with a slight upward trend. The downstream is in the seasonal off - season, with weak terminal demand and sufficient supply, and the finished - product inventory is increasing. In the long - term, the oversupply pattern is expected to gradually improve as the output peaks [3]. - The industrial products have been adjusted, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for rubber trading. Avoid chasing high prices at high levels. The support and pressure levels for the RU and NR main contracts are given [3]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Variety Viewpoint Summary - Rubber: The recommended strategy is to go long on dips. The main logic is that the domestic spot inventory has been slightly increasing, overseas supply has no obvious fluctuations, the spot price is firm, and the macro - sentiment boosts the commodity market. The support range is 15500 - 15800, the pressure range is 16300 - 16500, and the market is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - 20 - grade rubber: The recommended strategy is also to go long on dips. The dark - colored rubber has reached an inventory turning point, the Thai glue price is firm, the output declined in the fourth quarter, and there is still support below. The support range is 12700 - 12800, the pressure range is 13420 - 13805, and the market is expected to recover from the bottom [9]. 3.2 Futures Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Daily Change | Trading Volume | Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber Main - continuous | 16450 | - 0.51 | - 85 | 180678 | 152702 | | 20 - grade Rubber Main - continuous | 13370 | - 0.26 | - 35 | 46594 | 50704 | | Singapore TSR20 Main - continuous | 193 | 0.73 | 1 | 16 | 19281 | [9] 3.2.2 Futures Market Warehouse Receipt Situation - The latest warehouse receipt volume of 20 - grade rubber is 50803, with a year - on - year change of - 21.50%. The warehouse receipt has rebounded from a low level recently, and the market's inventory - accumulation expectation has resurfaced. - The latest warehouse receipt volume of rubber is 112570, with a year - on - year change of - 38.86%. The warehouse receipt was significantly cancelled again today, and the futures inventory decreased sharply year - on - year. The delivery risk of futures contracts increased, which supported the RU futures price [13]. 3.3 Spot Market Trends | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Natural Rubber (Yuan/ton) | 16442 | - 109 | - 398 | | Yunnan Glue (Yuan/ton) | 14200 | 0 | - 1800 | | Thai Hat Yai Glue (Thai Baht/kg) | 61 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai Hat Yai Cup Lumps (Thai Baht/kg) | 55 | 1 | - 5 | | Thai 20 - grade Standard Rubber in Qingdao Bonded Area (US dollars/ton) | 2000 | 35 | - 50 | [18] 3.4 Basis and Spread Situation | Futures | Spread Type | Current Value | Month - on - Month | Year - on - Year | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RU Main - contract Basis | Basis | - 133 | - 23 | 412 | | NR Main - contract Basis | Basis | 1755 | - 15 | 45 | | Thai Mixed - RU | Non - standard Basis | - 1320 | - 185 | - 550 | | SVR3L - RU | Non - standard Basis | 175 | - 40 | 260 | | RU - NR | Cross - variety Spread | 3080 | - 50 | 350 | | Whole Milk - Thai Mixed | Light - and Dark - colored Rubber Spread | 995 | 145 | 535 | [23] 3.5 Inter - month Spread Situation | Variety | Spread | Current Value | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | Forecast | Recommended Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rubber | 5 - 9 | 95 | 5 | 235 | Range - bound | Wait and see | | 20 - grade Rubber | 3 - 4 | - 75 | - 20 | - 215 | Range - bound | Wait and see | [25] 3.6 Industry Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as ANRPC member countries' overall supply - demand situation, natural and synthetic rubber import volume year - on - year, China's automobile production year - on - year, tire production start - up rate, tire inventory days, and natural rubber inventory [29][30]. 3.7 Option - related Data - There is no specific text summary in the provided content, but relevant data can be found in the figures such as the trading and holding situation of natural rubber options, the put - call ratio, historical volatility, and implied volatility [33].