橡胶：震荡运行20260213

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The rubber market is expected to move in a volatile manner. The trend strength of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [1] - Overseas supply is tightening as Vietnam's rubber - producing areas enter the end of the cutting - off season, and Thailand is in the late stage of rubber - tapping with reduced daily rubber collection. Meanwhile, the demand from downstream tire enterprises is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival, and the inventory in Qingdao is high, putting short - term pressure on the natural rubber market [1][2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Futures Market - The day - session closing price of the rubber main contract was 16,450 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 16,485 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The trading volume was 180,678 lots, a decrease of 89,476 lots; the open interest of the 05 contract was 152,702 lots, a decrease of 9,379 lots; the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 112,570 tons; the net short position of the top 20 members decreased by 2,973 lots [1] Spread Data - The basis of "spot - futures main contract" was - 200 yuan, down 25 yuan; the spread of "mixed - futures main contract" was - 1,100 yuan, up 75 yuan; the monthly spread of "RU05 - RU09" was 95, up 5; the overseas quotes of RSS3, STR20, SMR20, and SIR20 remained unchanged; the prices of substitute products such as Qilu Styrene - Butadiene Rubber remained unchanged, while Qilu cis - 1,4 - Polybutadiene Rubber dropped 100 yuan/ton [1] Spot Market - In the Qingdao market, the prices of imported Thai standard rubber, Thai mixed rubber, and African 10 increased by 20 - 25 dollars/ton, while the prices of Malaysian standard rubber and Malaysian mixed rubber were not available [1] Industry News - Vietnam's rubber - producing areas are in the end of the cutting - off season, with tight market supply and high raw material prices. Local factories and traders are in the pre - holiday shutdown state, and the shipment rhythm has slowed down. In Thailand, the raw material inventory of factories is lower than last year, and the daily rubber collection has decreased. The supply is gradually shrinking, and the raw material purchase price is expected to rise [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rubber is 0, indicating a neutral view on the market trend [1]