20260213中万期货品种策略日报：软商品-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The current sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, which drags down sugar prices. However, considering the current low level of raw sugar prices, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. Domestically, during the peak crushing season of southern sugar mills, the seasonal increase in sugar supply under the background of increased production leads to gradually emerging supply pressure. On the import side, sugar imports exceed market expectations and suppress the market. On the spot side, prices are weak, and pre - holiday consumption shows no improvement. With the international sugar price breaking down, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term [4]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher overnight and then declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate decreases, and the restocking of textile mills is coming to an end, but there is still some demand support. The spot cotton price is relatively firm, and the competitive procurement of large enterprises supports the cotton price. Considering the suppression of domestic cotton consumption by imported cotton and cotton yarn, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the near future. Currently, the futures price is at the upper limit of the range, and with the previous positive factors already apparent, there may be short - term upward pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Sugar futures prices generally declined. For example, the price of SR2609 decreased by 16 points, with a decline rate of 0.30%; the price of 11 - sugar 2603 decreased by 0.06, with a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For instance, the open interest of SR2609 increased by 21, while that of SR2605 decreased by 8525 [2]. - The comparison ratios and spreads of different sugar contracts also changed. For example, the current value of SR2605 - SR2509 is 3, compared with the previous value of 4 [2]. Spot Market - The current price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5370, the same as the previous price, while the price of white sugar in Kunming is not available this time. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming for SR2509 also changed. For example, the basis of Liuzhou SR2509 increased from 108 to 119 [2]. - The import prices of white sugar from Brazil and Thailand also changed. For example, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar decreased from 3374 to 3331 [2]. Inventory and Position - The total number of white sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged at 14719. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - sugar changed, and the long - to - short ratio decreased from 0.48 to 0.42 [2]. Industry Information - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan, 51 sugar mills have started crushing, 1 less than the same period last year. The estimated sugar - cane crushing capacity is 18.66 tons per day, an increase of 0.37 tons per day compared with the same period last year. The start - up time of the last sugar mill is estimated to be in late February, about 2 weeks later than the same period last year [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 year starting in October will reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, mainly due to the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%. The estimated sugar imports in the 2025/26 year are 2.24 million short tons, lower than the previous year's 3.39 million short tons. The estimated sugar consumption is 12.2 million short tons, the lowest level since the pandemic [3]. - According to the latest sugar - cane crushing report of the Maharashtra Sugar Industry Commission, as of February 8, 2026, sugar mills in the state have crushed 90.66 million tons of sugar cane in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a significant increase compared with the same period last year. A total of 8.44 million tons of sugar have been produced, with an average sugar yield of 9.31% [4].