铜冠金源期货商品日报-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas: Before the release of the January CPI, market risk - aversion sentiment significantly increased. Concerns about the potential structural reshaping of the industry by AI led to a "counter - AI trade", amplifying the selling pressure on the technology sector. The Nasdaq fell by over 2%, gold dropped by more than 3%, silver declined by over 10%, copper and oil fell by over 2%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.1%. The market is in a high - volatility environment, and attention is focused on the release of the US January CPI data [2]. - Domestic: Amid the expected April meeting between the Chinese and US presidents and Trump's planned visit to China, the US has postponed key technology and security restrictions on China. The A - share market continued its volatile and differentiated pattern on Thursday. Small - and medium - cap and growth styles were relatively dominant. Although the trading volume slightly rebounded to 2.16 trillion yuan, over 3,200 stocks fell. The market is in a slow recovery phase with shrinking volume, and is expected to maintain a volatile recovery trend in the short term. Attention is paid to the January financial data [3]. - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices dropped significantly on Thursday. The international gold price fell by 4.1% and silver plunged by 11%. This was due to the decline of US technology stocks and strong US employment data, which weakened the market's expectation of the Fed's near - term interest rate cut. The adjustment of precious metal prices may not be over, and attention should be paid to the US CPI data [4][5]. - Copper: The main contract of Shanghai copper declined on Thursday, and LME copper also fell. The market is worried about the potential burst of the global AI bubble, and hawkish remarks from Fed officials have dampened market risk appetite. The global refined copper market is in a tight balance, and copper prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,690 yuan/ton on Thursday. Strong US employment data has suppressed the expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the aluminum ingot inventory has continued to increase significantly. The aluminum price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range, and attention should be paid to controlling position risks [8]. - Alumina: The supply and demand of alumina have changed little recently. The supply pressure has slightly decreased, and the procurement of raw materials by electrolytic aluminum enterprises has been postponed. The market is waiting and seeing about the resumption of production of previously reduced - production capacity after the Spring Festival. Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [10]. - Cast Aluminum: Upstream and downstream enterprises of cast aluminum have entered the holiday stage, and the market supply and demand are weak. The holiday time of cast aluminum enterprises this year is slightly longer than usual. Cast aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [11]. - Zinc: Before the release of the US CPI data, the AI panic escalated, and the zinc price followed the adjustment of the non - ferrous metal sector. The domestic spot market has become stagnant, and the social inventory has continued to increase seasonally. The zinc price is expected to be cautious during the Spring Festival holiday [12]. - Lead: The upstream and downstream of the lead industry chain are mostly on holiday, the spot purchase has ended, and the social inventory has continued to rise. The Shanghai lead is expected to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range at a low level [13][14]. - Tin: The market's concern about the subversive impact of AI has led to a sharp decline in US stock indexes. Traders sold metals to cover stock market losses, and the tin price dropped at night. The market is in a holiday atmosphere, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - Steel (Screw and Coil): The steel futures fluctuated on Thursday. The supply of the five major steel products decreased, the inventory increased rapidly, and the apparent consumption decreased. The spot market has stopped trading before the festival, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Iron Ore: The trading volume of iron ore at ports has significantly slowed down, the steel mills have completed replenishment, and the iron ore consumption is at a low level. The overseas shipment and arrival volume have both decreased, and the port inventory remains high. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [17]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal supply has shrunk, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of coke enterprises has slightly recovered, but production is still restricted by environmental protection policies. The raw material inventory of steel mills and coke enterprises is at a high level in the past two years. The coking coal and coke prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [18][19]. - Beans and Rapeseed Meal: Trump's expected visit to China has improved the trade outlook, and the US soybean price has continued to rise. The precipitation in the Argentine soybean - producing area is expected to be higher than normal in the next two weeks. Due to the exchange's margin increase before the festival, funds have a high risk - aversion sentiment, and the longs in the domestic bean meal market have increased. The bean meal price is expected to fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian government has raised the reference price of crude palm oil in March but kept the export tariff unchanged. Indonesia has suspended the decision to expand the biodiesel blending ratio. The supply and demand of palm oil in Malaysia have both decreased in early February, and the inventory reduction may slow down. The palm oil price is expected to decline in a shock in the short term [22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - Copper: SHFE copper closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; LME copper closed at 12,856 US dollars/ton, down 2.90% [24]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum closed at 23,610 yuan/ton, down 0.21%; LME aluminum closed at 3,098 US dollars/ton, down 0.63% [24]. - Alumina: The main contract of SHFE alumina closed at 2,808 yuan/ton, down 1.20% [24]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc closed at 24,650 yuan/ton, up 0.26%; LME zinc closed at 3,382 US dollars/ton, down 1.07% [24]. - Lead: SHFE lead closed at 16,700 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; LME lead closed at 1,984 US dollars/ton, down 0.53% [24]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel closed at 139,610 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME nickel closed at 17,250 US dollars/ton, down 4.51% [24]. - Tin: SHFE tin closed at 391,320 yuan/ton, down 0.86%; LME tin closed at 47,800 US dollars/ton, down 4.52% [24]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold closed at 4,941.40 US dollars/ounce, down 3.26%; SHFE silver closed at 20,626 yuan/kg, down 1.52%; COMEX silver closed at 75.01 US dollars/ounce, down 10.79% [24]. - Steel: SHFE rebar closed at 3,050 yuan/ton, down 0.13%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3,218 yuan/ton, down 0.31% [24]. - Iron Ore: DCE iron ore closed at 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.07% [24]. - Coking Coal and Coke: DCE coking coal closed at 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; DCE coke closed at 1,664.0 yuan/ton, down 0.18% [24]. - Industrial Silicon: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8,335.0 yuan/ton, down 0.42% [24]. - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybeans closed at 1,151.3 yuan/ton, up 2.47%; DCE bean meal closed at 2,790.0 yuan/ton, up 0.61%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2,303.0 yuan/ton, up 0.66% [24]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - Copper: On February 12, SHFE copper main contract was 102,330 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan from the previous day; LME copper 3 - month contract was 12,855.5 US dollars/ton, down 383.5 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 4,550 tons to 196,650 tons [25]. - Nickel: SHFE nickel main contract was 139,610 yuan/ton on February 12, up 250 yuan; LME nickel 3 - month contract was 17,250 US dollars/ton, down 815 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 636 tons to 286,386 tons [25]. - Zinc: SHFE zinc main contract was 24,650 yuan/ton on February 12, up 65 yuan; LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, down 36.5 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 1,750 tons to 103,500 tons [28]. - Lead: SHFE lead main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton on February 12, up 35 yuan; LME lead was 1,994.5 US dollars/ton, up 17 US dollars. LME inventory increased by 200 tons to 232,950 tons [28]. - Aluminum: SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract was 23,745 yuan/ton on February 12, down 50 yuan; LME aluminum 3 - month contract was 3,097.5 US dollars/ton, down 19.5 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 2,200 tons to 483,550 tons [28]. - Alumina: SHFE alumina main contract was 2,808 yuan/ton on February 12, down 34 yuan; the national average spot price of alumina was 2,646 yuan/ton, unchanged. The SHEF warehouse inventory increased by 14,094 tons to 276,825 tons [28]. - Tin: SHFE tin main contract was 391,320 yuan/ton on February 12, down 3,380 yuan; LME tin was 47,800 US dollars/ton, down 2,265 US dollars. LME inventory decreased by 60 tons to 7,490 tons [28]. - Precious Metals: SHFE gold was 1,126.12 yuan, unchanged; COMEX gold was 4,948.40 US dollars/ounce, unchanged. SHFE silver was 20,626.00 yuan/kg, unchanged; COMEX silver was 75.682 US dollars/ounce, unchanged [28]. - Steel: Rebar main contract was 3,050 yuan/ton on February 12, down 4 yuan; the Shanghai spot price of rebar was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The iron ore main contract was 762.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan [30]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coke main contract was 1,664.0 yuan/ton on February 12, down 3.0 yuan; coking coal main contract was 1,120.0 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan [30]. - Agricultural Products: CBOT soybean main contract was 1,151.25 yuan/ton on February 12, up 27.75 yuan; DCE bean meal main contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; CZCE rapeseed meal main contract was 2,303 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [30].