生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20260213

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: For sugar, the international sugar supply is in surplus, leading to a decline in the external sugar market and dragging down Zhengzhou sugar futures prices. With sufficient domestic sugar supply, the price trend is likely downward. For pulp, the fundamentals are weak, lacking positive factors, but there is support for prices as the expectation of supply reduction from overseas producers is rising. For double - offset paper, the cost support weakens, and the price increase is limited. For cotton, the external market continues to put pressure on prices, and the domestic market is expected to have narrow - range fluctuations in the short term [4][7]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: For apples, the supply - side support remains, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range. For jujubes, after the price rebounds from the bottom, it shows a narrow - range shock, and the contradiction between the futures and spot prices is alleviated [8][9][10]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory First Part: Plate Strategy Recommendation - Fresh Fruit Futures: Apple 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 8800 - 8900 and a pressure range of 11000 - 11500. Jujube 2605 is recommended for short - term buying at low prices, with a support range of 8700 - 9000 and a pressure range of 9500 - 9800 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures: Sugar 2605 is recommended for temporary observation, with a support range of 5070 - 5100 and a pressure range of 5320 - 5350. Pulp 2605 is recommended for light - position long - allocation, with a support range of 5130 - 5200 and a pressure range of 5360 - 5400. Double - offset paper 2605 is recommended for range operation, with a support range of 4000 - 4100 and a pressure range of 4250 - 4300. Cotton 2605 is recommended to reduce long positions, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 15400 - 15500 [18]. Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples increased significantly. As of February 12, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. The spot price in the production area remained stable, and the sales situation in the sales area was generally good, but the sales of low - quality gift boxes were slow [19][21]. - Jujube Market: As of February 9, the physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased week - on - week. Due to a dispersed acquisition structure and a cautious market outlook, holders are more willing to sell before the Spring Festival [22]. - Sugar Market: In the 2025/26 sugar - making season, Thailand's sugar production decreased, the US sugar production and inventory/consumption ratio were estimated, and Brazil's sugar production and related indicators changed. The market is currently bearish [24]. - Pulp Market: Affected by the decline in futures prices and weakening demand, the Chinese pulp market continued to weaken, but the prices of NBSK from Canada and Northern Europe remained stable [27]. - Double - Offset Paper Market: The inventory days decreased, and the decline rate narrowed. The start - up load rate increased slightly, and the increase rate also narrowed. The overall inventory - reduction speed of the industry decreased [28]. - Cotton Market: EU clothing imports showed changes in September and October 2025. In January, Cote d'Ivoire's cotton exports increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year, and Australian farmers were optimistic about the yield [29]. Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: The closing prices, daily price changes, and daily price change rates of apple 2605, jujube 2605, sugar 2605, pulp 2605, and cotton 2605 are provided [30]. - Spot Market Review: The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, double - offset paper, and cotton are presented [36]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - For apple, the 5 - 10 spread is 1421, with a positive outlook, and it is recommended to buy at low prices. For jujube, the 5 - 9 spread is - 215, and it is recommended to wait and see. For sugar, the 5 - 9 spread is - 5, with an expected volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see. For cotton, the 5 - 9 spread is - 65, with a weakening trend, and it is recommended to sell at high prices [56]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [88]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data - Not summarized in detail as only relevant figure references are provided