2026年2月13日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals declined, with silver experiencing a significant drop. The sharp fall in US technology stocks led to a decline in market risk appetite, causing precious metals to plunge due to liquidity shocks. Although the release of US employment data cooled down the expectation of interest rate cuts, the overall US job market is in a cooling trend, and the US economy still requires interest rate cuts. It is expected that after the new Fed Chairman takes office in the middle of the year, interest rate cuts will be re - promoted. In the long run, factors supporting gold such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases have not reversed. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel. Due to silver's higher volatility than gold and the relatively low gold - silver ratio, investors are advised to wait and see [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Prices: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 1129.74 and 1126.12 respectively, down 0.29% and 0.38% from the previous day; the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 20348 and 20626 respectively, down 0.77% and 1.52% from the previous day [2]. - Positions and Volumes: The positions of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were 93522 and 154552 respectively, with trading volumes of 53698 and 246621 respectively; the positions of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were 135582 and 198505 respectively, with trading volumes of 288400 and 509006 respectively [2]. - Spot Premium: The spot premiums of Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 were - 6.82 and - 3.2 respectively; the spot premiums of Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 were - 678 and - 956 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Prices: The closing price of Shanghai Gold T + D was 1122.92, down 0.14% from the previous day; the closing price of London Gold was 4921.11 US dollars per troy ounce, down 3.22% from the previous day. The closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 19670, down 1.15% from the previous day; the closing price of London Silver was 75.22 US dollars per troy ounce, down 10.68% from the previous day [2]. - Ratios: The current value of the difference between Shanghai Gold 2606 and 2604 was 3.62, and that between Shanghai Silver 2606 and 2604 was - 278.00. The current gold - silver ratio (spot) was 57.09, and the ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver were 1.03 and 1.18 respectively [2]. Inventory - Gold: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold remained unchanged at 105,072 kilograms; the inventory of COMEX gold decreased by 287,033 troy ounces to 34,448,012 troy ounces [2]. - Silver: The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver increased by 7,531 kilograms to 349,633 kilograms; the inventory of COMEX silver decreased by 2,335,797 troy ounces to 379,233,006 troy ounces [2]. Related Derivatives - Indices and Yields: The US Dollar Index decreased by 0.02 to 96.91; the S&P 500 Index decreased by 108.71 to 6,832.76; the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.09% to 4.09%; Brent crude oil decreased by 1.96 to 67.67 US dollars per barrel; the US dollar against the RMB decreased by 0.0099 to 6.9016 [2]. - ETF and Net Positions: The position of SPDR Gold ETF decreased by 5 tons to 1,076 tons; the position of SLV Silver ETF decreased by 62 tons to 16,174 tons. The net position of CFTC speculators in gold decreased by 39,792 to 165,604, while that in silver increased by 2,174 to 25,877 [2]. Macro News - Market Impact: Concerns about artificial intelligence triggered a sell - off in financial markets, causing a sharp decline in gold prices. The decline was likely amplified by algorithm traders and commodity trading advisors. Margin calls may have also intensified the selling. Analysts believe that the sudden drop in gold prices on Thursday does not indicate a continuous downward trend but increases the possibility of short - term volatility [3]. - Geopolitical News: On February 12, US President Trump said that the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, otherwise the situation will be "very serious." He is willing to negotiate with Iran for as long as necessary, and if no agreement is reached, it will enter a "second stage" which will be difficult for Iran [4]. - Economic Relations: According to a Russian internal document, the Kremlin has proposed to "re - embrace the US dollar" as part of building a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration. The proposal lists seven potential areas of economic cooperation between Russia and the US, which may reshape the global financial landscape [5]. - Housing Market: In January, the annualized rate of pending home sales in the US dropped to 3.91 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%, the largest monthly decline since April 2022. Severe weather may have affected contract closings. However, with the recent decline in mortgage rates and the slowdown in housing price increases, there are signs of improved affordability in the housing market [6].