豆粕：规避春节长假风险，豆一：规避春节长假风险

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report advises to avoid risks during the Spring Festival holiday for both soybean meal and soybean futures [1]. - The market is optimistic about China's demand for US soybeans, and positive news such as potential trade truce extension and increased purchase targets has boosted soybean futures prices, offsetting the pressure from the upward - adjusted soybean production estimates in Brazil and Argentina [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking 3.1.1 Futures - DCE soybean 2605 closed at 4613 yuan/ton during the day session, up 112 yuan (+2.49%), and 4693 yuan/ton at night, up 117 yuan (+2.56%) [1]. - DCE soybean meal 2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton during the day session, up 32 yuan (+1.16%), and 2807 yuan/ton at night, up 25 yuan (+0.90%) [1]. - CBOT soybean 03 closed at 1136.5 cents/bushel, up 13.0 cents (+1.16%) [1]. - CBOT soybean meal 03 closed at 307.7 dollars/short - ton, up 5.0 dollars (+1.65%) [1]. 3.1.2 Spot - In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) is 3100 - 3140 yuan/ton. Rizhao Bangji's price increased by 20 - 30 yuan compared to the previous day. The price for post - festival to the end of March delivery is M2605 + 310, unchanged [1]. - In East China, Zhangjiagang Dafu's price is unchanged. The price for March is M2605 + 300, for April 16 - 30 delivery is M2605 + 200 (up 40 yuan compared to the previous day), for April is M2605 + 250 (up 50 yuan compared to the previous day) [1]. - In South China, Fangchenggang Dahai's spot price of soybean meal is 3120 yuan/ton, and the oil mill has no basis quote [1]. 3.1.3 Main Industry Data - The trading volume of soybean meal is 1.55 million tons per day, and the inventory is 88.16 million tons per week [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On February 12, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to the optimistic outlook of China's demand. The market expects the Sino - US trade relationship to ease, which may stimulate a new round of purchases of US soybeans [3]. - The US President Trump said that China will increase the purchase target of US soybeans according to the trade truce agreement reached at the end of October. Media reports also suggest that the trade truce may be extended for up to one year in the meeting between Trump and Chinese leaders in early April [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture reported that private exporters sold 108,000 tons of soybeans to Egypt for delivery in the 2025/26 fiscal year [3]. - Brazil's National Commodity Supply Company (Conab) raised the country's soybean production forecast from 176.12 million tons in January to a record 177.98 million tons, and the US Department of Agriculture also raised the forecast to 180 million tons [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0, indicating a neutral trend for the day - session main - contract futures prices on the reporting day [3].