20260213申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇-20260213

1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing a significant surplus in 2026, with daily supply expected to exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels. The supply growth rate is faster than demand due to OPEC+ increasing production since April 2025 and output boosts from other producers like the US, Guyana, and Brazil. The IEA has lowered the global daily oil supply growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels this year, still much higher than demand growth [3]. - The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's average operating load is 80.88%, up 0.27 percentage points. Coastal methanol inventory is basically flat with slow inventory reduction, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 78.20%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous period but up 2.08 percentage points year - on - year [3]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - Price Changes: SC near - month contract price increased by 0.3 yuan (0.06%), SC next - month remained unchanged; WTI near - month dropped by $1.98 (-3.05%), WTI next - month fell by $1.99 (-3.07%); Brent near - month rose by $0.55 (0.80%), Brent next - month increased by $0.54 (0.79%) [2]. - Trading Volume: SC near - month had a trading volume of 2,652, SC next - month had 89,585; WTI near - month had 298,943, WTI next - month had 217,319; Brent near - month had 333,597, Brent next - month had 216,713 [2]. - Open Interest: SC near - month open interest decreased by 1,824 to 2,419, SC next - month decreased by 2,197 to 43,716; WTI near - month decreased by 27,598 to 234,240, WTI next - month increased by 3,656 to 241,210; Brent near - month decreased by 29,632 to 540,674, Brent next - month increased by 29,786 to 492,239 [2]. - Spreads: SC near - month - SC next - month spread changed from - 6.2 to - 5.9 yuan/barrel, etc. [2]. Spot Market - International Market: OPEC basket price rose from 67.86 to 68.52, Brent DTD from 72.41 to 73.15, etc. [2]. - Domestic Market: Daqing crude price rose from 66.23 to 66.94, Chinese gasoline wholesale price index from 7,420 to 7,425 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Commodity - Specific Analysis - Crude Oil: SC night - session dropped by 5.14%. The global oil market has a large surplus, and supply growth outpaces demand [3]. - Methanol: Methanol night - session fell by 0.04%. The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's operating load increased, coastal inventory is basically flat, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period [3].