养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products including soybeans, oils, grains, and livestock. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and offers corresponding trading strategies for different futures contracts [3][4][5]. - For most products, the market is influenced by factors such as domestic and international policies, seasonal demand, and weather conditions. For example, the US biodiesel policy affects the prices of soybeans and soybean oil, and the supply of imported grains impacts the domestic grain market [3][5][7]. Summary According to the Directory Part One: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Analysis - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the pre - holiday stocking is ending, but the post - holiday outlook is positive. The supply of domestic beans is sufficient. The expected good performance of US soybeans drives up the prices of domestic beans. For example, the soybean No.1 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the soybean No.2 05 contract is also expected to be volatile and bullish, but it is recommended to wait and see [11]. - Oils: The US biodiesel policy is expected to be positive, and the prices of US soybeans and soybean oil are strong. The inventory of domestic soybean oil is low, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the Dalian soybean oil. The rapeseed oil supply is gradually becoming looser, but the price still has support. The MPOB report for palm oil is bullish, but the high - frequency data in February is weak, and the supply - demand situation in the first quarter still has support. For example, the soybean oil 05 contract is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner and it is recommended to wait and see; the palm oil 05 contract is expected to adjust in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to consider going long at low prices after the holiday [11]. - Proteins: The supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the pre - holiday stocking is basically over. The expected good performance of US soybean prices may boost the prices of domestic beans. Rapeseed meal is driven by the protein sector. For example, the soybean meal 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long with a light position in the short - term; the rapeseed meal 05 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [11]. - Energy and By - products: The supply - demand mismatch during the Spring Festival still supports the prices. The corn 05 contract is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; the starch 03 contract follows the cost of corn and is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to return to a wait - and - see state [11]. - Livestock: For pigs, the feed price stops falling and rebounds, and the expectation of capacity reduction is strengthened. For eggs, the new production is decreasing, and there is an expectation of a consumption peak season. For example, the pig 03 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to go long with a light position; the egg 05 contract is expected to find a bottom in a volatile manner, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For most cross - period and cross - variety arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For example, in the oilseed sector, the soybeans No.1 3 - 5 and soybeans No.2 3 - 5 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see; in the oil sector, the soybean oil 5 - 9, rapeseed oil 5 - 9, and palm oil 5 - 9 arbitrage are recommended to wait and see. In the energy and by - product sector, the corn 3 - 5 arbitrage is recommended to go short at high prices [12][13]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various products, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [14]. Part Two: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, such as the arrival premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF arrival prices, and arrival duty - paid prices [16][17]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, peanuts, and peanut oil, as well as the operating rates of soybean and rapeseed oil mills [18][19]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival duty - paid costs [19]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch [20]. 3. Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of pig and egg prices, as well as the weekly key data of the pig market, including prices, costs, profits, slaughter data, etc., and the weekly data of the egg market, including supply, demand, and profit data [20][21][22][23][24]. Part Three: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock End (Pigs, Eggs): It includes the closing prices of pig and egg futures contracts, as well as the spot prices of pigs, piglets, eggs, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [26][28][29][30][31][32]. - Oils and Oilseeds: It includes the production, export, inventory, and trading data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, as well as the basis and spread data [35][42][49]. - Feed End: It includes the price, basis, spread, inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [52][60][67][80]. Part Four: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It includes the futures spread, historical volatility, and option trading volume and open interest data of various products [92][93][94]. Part Five: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs [100][102][104][107].