双焦周报2026/02/11：震荡反复-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views For Coking Coal - The coking coal market is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. The supply will experience a seasonal contraction as some mines start to take holidays and reduce production, while the demand is weak with only some rigid - demand purchases. The supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. Attention should be paid to the post - Spring Festival destocking speed and macro expectations [3]. For Coke - The coke market is also expected to oscillate. After the first round of price increase, the profit is good. The supply is stable, and the demand is not strongly driven. The supply - demand drive of coke itself is not obvious. After the Spring Festival, the recovery of hot metal production should be monitored [4]. Summary by Directory Coking Coal Spot Market - Near the Spring Festival, the market trading is light. Some traders and coal washing plants are on holiday. The downstream's acceptance of high prices is low, and most of the auction market transactions are at reduced prices. The pit - mouth coal price is stable with a weak trend. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Anze, Shanxi has dropped to 1,570 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 yuan/ton. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jinzhong is 1,400 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere at the Mongolian coal port is cold, with high customs clearance and large inventory pressure. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal has dropped to 1,010 - 1,030 yuan/ton [9][16]. Spread and Basis - The current conversion of Mongolian coal into warehouse receipts is about 1,150 yuan/ton, and the futures price is slightly at a discount. The basis has strengthened as the futures price has oscillated and declined recently [3][35]. Supply - The coal mine capacity utilization rate has rebounded to 88.3%, a week - on - week increase of 1%. The coal mine operation has continued to recover and is currently at a high level. However, since this week, some mines have entered the holiday state, and the supply has shrunk significantly. The average daily customs clearance at Ganqimaodu last week was 1,148 vehicles, and the Mongolian coal supply is still at a relatively high level [3][48]. Demand - Downstream coke and steel enterprises only maintain on - demand transportation [3]. Inventory - The upstream mine's inventory is low, and the downstream coke and steel enterprises have fully replenished their stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [3]. Coke Spot Market - Coke enterprises have raised the price by one round. The quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port is quoted at 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat price. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Shanxi is about 1,520 - 1,535 yuan/ton. The wet - quenched warehouse receipt at the coke port is 1,600 yuan/ton, and the quasi - first - grade dry - quenched warehouse receipt is 1,720 yuan/ton [4][94]. Basis and Monthly Spread - Recently, the futures price has oscillated and declined, at a discount to the dry - quenched warehouse receipt. The 5 - 9 monthly spread has oscillated [100]. Supply - After the price increase, coke enterprises have good profits, and the operation is relatively stable. The coke production capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises is 72.2%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34% [4]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills is 228.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 tons. The steel mills' profitability is lower than the same period last year, and the blast furnace operation before the Spring Festival is stable but at a low level [4][105]. Profit - After the first round of price increase, the profitability of coke enterprises has improved, and the current estimated overall profitability of coking is about 70 yuan/ton [4]. Inventory - Coke enterprises have no inventory pressure, and the downstream has fully replenished stocks and will mainly consume the previous inventory [4]. Balance Sheet Coking Coal - The production, import, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [140]. Coke - The production, import, export, consumption, surplus, and inventory data from 2025/6 to 2026/6 are presented, along with the year - on - year growth rates of production and consumption [142].