定价机制改变对铅市场的影响

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the lead price has dropped significantly, mainly due to the high - level surplus in the domestic lead market, the continuous opening of the lead ingot import window, and the imbalance between supply and demand [3]. - On January 30, the Shanghai Futures Exchange announced plans to include recycled lead as an alternative delivery product. In the short - term, it intensifies the downward sentiment, but after the short - term sentiment, the lead price still has cost support. In the long - term, it will smooth price fluctuations, restructure the pricing logic, and shift the lead price to "dual - track pricing of primary and recycled lead", with the cost of recycled lead and the price of waste batteries becoming core variables [4]. - After the Spring Festival, the recent significant decline in lead and silver prices and the closure of the lead concentrate import window have led some primary lead smelters to plan for maintenance, and recycled lead enterprises have also returned to low production due to profit compression. It is expected that the pressure of supply surplus will be greatly relieved, and the lead price will be supported by cost, but the rebound space may be limited due to the lack of demand highlights [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Hotspots - On January 30, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange proposed to introduce recycled lead as an alternative delivery product (meeting the specifications of GB/T 21181 - 2025 ZSPb99.986 or ZSPb99.990). The new national standard for recycled lead (GB/T 21181 - 2025) was released on August 29, 2025, and will be officially implemented on March 1, 2026 [10]. - The main changes in the new national standard for recycled lead include changes in recycled lead grades, adjustment of impurity content, and an increase in the single - ingot weight specification [10]. - Incorporating recycled lead into the futures delivery system can make the futures price more comprehensively and truly reflect the actual supply - demand situation of the lead market, and more compliant recycled lead enterprises will have the opportunity to participate in the futures market. In the short - term, it suppresses the rebound, in the medium - term, it helps reduce delivery risks and smooth market fluctuations, and in the long - term, it reconstructs the lead price pricing logic [10]. Weekly Fundamental Situation Main Industry News - Zijin Mining Group plans to keep its 2026 production of zinc (lead) at 400,000 tons, the same as in 2025, and aims for 400,000 - 450,000 tons in 2028 [12]. - In 2025, China's motorcycle production and sales increased by over 10% year - on - year. Yadea led the electric motorcycle market with 921,100 units sold [12]. - Kunming University of Science and Technology's technology center completed the construction of an energy - storage system for a cloud computing center, marking an important breakthrough in the application of its aluminum - based lead - carbon battery technology in the energy - storage field of computing centers [12]. Lead Concentrate Production and Processing Fees - The national average processing fee for lead concentrate is 250 yuan/metal ton, unchanged from last week; the average processing fee for imported ore is - 150 US dollars/dry ton, also unchanged from last week. The overall processing fee shows a slight downward trend [16]. - With the arrival of winter - storage supplies, the raw material inventory of smelters has increased. In December, the raw material inventory days of primary lead smelters were 27 days, up 1 day from November, and remained at 27 days in January, at a relatively high level [16]. - Due to the recent decline in precious metal prices, some smelters no longer accept the extremely low - price quotes of lead concentrate processing fees, but the processing fees of lead concentrates rich in medium - low silver remain stable [16]. Lead Concentrate Import - In December 2025, the import volume of lead ore and its concentrates was 149,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 35.8% and a year - on - year increase of 24.63%. The cumulative import volume in 2025 was 1.4356 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%, with 50% coming from Russia [23]. - As of February 6, the port inventory of lead concentrate was 32,200 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week, showing an overall inventory - accumulation trend [23]. - Since January, the lead concentrate import window has been completely closed. Coupled with the decline in smelter demand during the Spring Festival, it is expected that the import volume of lead concentrate in the first quarter will drop to a relatively low level [23]. Primary Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of primary lead enterprises was 61.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.31 percentage points [28]. - Recently, with the support of by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid, the profit of primary lead enterprises has risen to about 2,000 yuan/ton, reversing the loss in October. Stimulated by high profits, the domestic electrolytic lead production reached a new high in January. By February 5, the weekly finished - product inventory of major primary lead delivery brands was 8,950 tons, a significant decrease from 28,200 tons at the end of January [29]. - In February, due to the Spring Festival and the significant decline in lead and silver prices, some primary lead smelters plan to carry out maintenance, and it is expected that the electrolytic lead production in February will decrease by more than 12 percentage points month - on - month [29]. Recycled Lead Production - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of recycled lead enterprises was 38.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. In January, the raw material inventory of lead smelting enterprises increased, and some recycled lead smelters increased production. Two smelters in East and Central China resumed production, boosting the recycled lead production in January [33]. - Since late January, the profit of recycled lead enterprises has turned negative again. Currently, large - scale enterprises have an average loss of about 200 yuan/ton, while small and medium - scale enterprises have a loss of more than 400 yuan/ton. Due to poor terminal consumption, the finished - product inventory of recycled lead plants reached a historical high in January [33]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown of enterprises was one week earlier than usual. Coupled with the decrease in the number of days in February, the recycled lead production in February decreased by about 110,000 tons. The resumption of work in recycled lead plants is mostly concentrated in March [33]. Lead - containing Waste Materials - This week, affected by the continuous decline in lead prices and relatively sufficient short - term raw material inventory, recycled lead smelters reduced purchase prices. Some small and medium - sized recycling enterprises became more active in selling due to fear of price drops, leading to a short - term price decline of waste lead - acid batteries [37]. - During the Spring Festival, the shutdown cycle of the waste battery recycling industry is similar to previous years. Market transactions gradually became light from early February, and most enterprises will resume operation around the Lantern Festival (February 24) [37]. Primary Processing End - In the week of February 5, the operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises was 65.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.19 percentage points [44]. - In January, the finished - product inventory of lead - acid battery enterprises was 23.5 days, an increase of 2 days from the previous month; the finished - product inventory of dealers was 40.74 days, a decrease of 2.85 days from the previous month. The inventory pressure of dealers is still relatively high [44]. - In January, the terminal consumption of the lead - acid battery market was weak, the inventory digestion of dealers was slow, and pre - holiday inventory preparation was cautious. Lead - acid battery enterprises had high finished - product inventory, and their pre - holiday inventory preparation for lead ingots was limited, resulting in light transactions in the lead spot market [44]. Inventory Situation - As of February 11, the total LME lead ingot inventory was 232,950 tons, a month - on - month increase of 100 tons. There was a large - scale delivery of nearly 30,000 tons at the end of January. The overall LME inventory remained relatively stable at a high level [49]. - As of February 12, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 53,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,500 tons [49]. - As of February 6, the total SHFE lead inventory was 47,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,720 tons. The social inventory of lead ingots before the Spring Festival this year reached a historical high [49]. Structure Shanghai Lead Spread Structure - As of Wednesday this week, the domestic spot average was at a discount of 190 yuan/ton to the Shanghai lead main contract 03, basically unchanged from last week. The Shanghai lead market maintains a Contango structure with little short - term change [55]. London Lead Spread Structure - The outer - market LME maintains a Contango structure. Recently, the LME lead 0 - 3 discount has shown a slight widening trend. On February 11, the LME 0 - 3 spread was - 48.07 US dollars/ton [59]. Shanghai - London Ratio Change - As of February 11, the Shanghai - London ratio rose slightly to 8.46, excluding the exchange ratio of 1.22. The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was around - 16 yuan/ton, the import loss narrowed, and the import window, which was closed at the beginning of January, is approaching to open again [62]. London Lead Position and Warehouse Receipt Concentration - The LME's FuturesBandingReport shows that the short - position concentration in the near - month is relatively high, and both long and short positions have increased, indicating intensified long - short competition [67]. - The CashReport and WarrantBandingReport show that the concentration of cash and tom during the delivery week is relatively high, and the warehouse receipt concentration has increased [66].