GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-13 03:12Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - The report discusses the transition of the US economy from a "K-shaped divergence" to a "re-inflation" phase, indicating that the lower end of the K-shaped economy is beginning to converge with the upper end, supported by refinancing loans from the high-net-worth group [1][2][16] - It highlights the self-reinforcing mechanism of inflation expectations, where demand-driven inflation can lower real interest rates and compress credit spreads, leading to a unique situation where actual mortgage rates are at a three-year low despite rising long-term US Treasury yields [2][16] - The report notes a shift in global liquidity from easing expectations to tightening, with Bitcoin serving as a barometer for this transition, suggesting a non-typical re-inflation trade influenced by a combination of interest rate cuts and balance sheet reductions [3][16] Group 2: Industry Analysis - Perpetual Bonds - The issuance of perpetual bonds is primarily aimed at reducing corporate leverage, with significant peaks in issuance observed during 2018-2020 and ongoing demand from high-leverage state-owned enterprises since 2023, with annual net financing expected to be between 200-300 billion yuan [5][31] - The report outlines the evolution of issuance terms, noting an increase in the proportion of 5+N terms in recent years, indicating a trend towards longer maturities as credit spreads narrow [6][32] - It discusses the characteristics of perpetual bonds, emphasizing the balance between debt-like and equity-like features, with over 60% of recent issuances containing subordinate clauses to meet accounting standards [7][34] Group 3: Company Coverage - Rongzhi Rixin - The report initiates coverage on Rongzhi Rixin, projecting significant revenue growth driven by AI models and smart devices, with expected revenues of 687 million, 839 million, and 1,047 million yuan for 2025-2027, respectively [9][29] - It highlights the company's comprehensive technology system that enhances diagnostic efficiency by 3-5 times, supported by a substantial database of over 187,000 monitoring devices and 33,000+ failure cases, establishing a strong competitive moat [11][30] - The company is positioned in a high-growth sector, with a focus on industrial equipment maintenance across various industries, and has shown remarkable profit growth, with a 2063.42% increase in net profit year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [12][30]