有色金属日度策略-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - farm data in the US has weakened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the holiday atmosphere is strong. The non - farm employment in the US in January increased by 130,000, the largest increase since April last year, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%. Wall Street expects the first interest rate cut to be postponed to July. The copper market was affected by the strong US employment data, first rising and then falling. Trump plans to set up a $12 billion strategic reserve for critical minerals, which may give copper a further premium. The US manufacturing activity expanded unexpectedly in January, reaching the fastest growth rate since 2022 [3][12]. - The zinc market is in a state of consolidation. The domestic imported ore TC has slightly decreased, the upstream production reduction is limited, the downstream is on holiday with significantly lightened operations and longer holidays, and the spot inventory continues to increase with the possibility of further inventory accumulation [4]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a state of shock consolidation. The spot price of alumina has stabilized, and there are many restarts after capacity overhauls. The cost support of recycled aluminum alloy has weakened, and it is suppressed by the seasonal off - season and profit inversion, but there are still some factors providing bottom support [5]. - The tin market is in shock consolidation. The Shanghai tin follows the Shanghai nickel and shows a relatively strong trend, but the liquidity decreases before the holiday. Attention should be paid to the changes in capital sentiment, as well as the situation of the ore end and macro - factors [6]. - The lead market is in a low - level shock rebound, but the upward driving force is insufficient. The supply of primary lead has some overhauls, and the production suspension, holiday or overhauls of recycled lead have increased. The downstream demand is weak, and the spot inventory continues to rise [8]. - For the nickel and stainless - steel market, the Indonesian quota is confirmed, and the ore quota of Weda Bay nickel mine in Indonesia is cut by 70%. The cost of nickel products is expected to remain at a relatively high level. The stainless - steel market is in consolidation, and the reduction of the Indonesian quota may increase the cost of stainless - steel production in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The non - ferrous metals as a whole are in shock, with a strong holiday atmosphere and net capital outflows. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the US - Iran negotiation, still has uncertainties, and there may be fluctuations in the overseas bulk commodities during the holiday. The global major economies are actively deploying hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion. China's CPI and PPI in January showed certain changes, and the US non - farm data affected the market's expectation of interest rate cuts [12]. - Investment Suggestions: After a significant adjustment, the non - ferrous metals sector has repaired, and the trends are differentiated. It is advisable to go long on dips according to the strength of the fundamentals after the adjustment pressure is fully released, but it is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday. For different varieties: - Copper: The operation logic includes strong US employment data, Trump's plan for strategic reserves, and the macro - economic situation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Zinc: The market is in stage consolidation. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 23,800 - 24,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [16]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: It is recommended to wait and see. For aluminum, the support range is 22,000 - 22,300 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 26,000 - 27,000 yuan/ton; for alumina, the support range is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 2900 - 3000 yuan/ton; for recycled aluminum alloy, the support range is 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is 24,000 - 26,000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Tin: It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 330,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton [16]. - Lead: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 16,400 - 16,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 17,000 - 17,300 yuan/ton [17]. - Nickel: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 130,000 - 132,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 138,000 - 142,000 yuan/ton [17]. - Stainless - steel: It is recommended to go long on dips, with a support range of 12,800 - 13,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 13,800 - 14,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - Futures Closing Situation: The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metal futures are provided, such as copper closing at 102,330 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase, zinc at 24,650 yuan/ton with a 0.26% increase, etc. [18] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is presented, including the net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for different varieties such as lithium carbonate, nickel, tin, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price at 102,200 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price at 24,470 yuan/ton with no change, etc. [22] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Copper: Relevant charts about copper, such as exchange copper inventory changes, LME copper inventory, copper concentrate smelting fees, and the relationship between the US dollar index and copper price, are provided [24]. - Zinc: Charts related to zinc, including zinc inventory changes, zinc concentrate processing fee changes, zinc spot market prices, and galvanized sheet production seasonality, are presented [26][28]. - Aluminum: Charts about aluminum, such as the comparison between Shanghai aluminum inventory and aluminum price, LME aluminum inventory and LME aluminum price, LME spot premium and discount trends, and Shanghai Non - ferrous aluminum premium and discount trends, are provided [30][31]. - Alumina: Charts related to alumina, including the spot price trend of alumina, alumina port inventory changes, etc., are presented [37]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Relevant charts are provided, but specific content is not detailed in the text [45]. - Lead: Charts about lead, such as lead concentrate 50% processing fee to the factory average price, domestic and foreign exchange lead futures inventory, LME lead 0 - 3 premium and discount, and lead spot price, are presented [49][51]. - Nickel: Charts related to nickel, including Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel futures inventory, LME nickel inventory, refined nickel spot premium and discount, and LME nickel 0 - 3 premium and discount, are provided [53][55]. - Stainless - steel: Charts about stainless - steel, such as the number of stainless - steel warehouse receipts and stainless - steel spot price, are presented [57][59]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Copper: Charts about copper arbitrage, such as the change of copper Shanghai - London ratio and the premium and discount between Shanghai copper and London copper, are provided [61]. - Zinc: Charts related to zinc arbitrage, such as the change of zinc Shanghai - London ratio and LME zinc spot premium and discount, are presented [61]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Charts about aluminum and alumina arbitrage, such as aluminum basis and futures - spot price trend, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio trend, Shanghai aluminum continuous one - continuous three trend, and alumina continuous two - continuous one trend, are provided [64][66]. - Tin: Charts related to tin arbitrage, such as Shanghai tin basis trend, Shanghai tin continuous three - continuous price trend, and tin Shanghai - London ratio trend, are presented [68][70]. - Lead: Charts about lead arbitrage, such as the price difference between Shanghai zinc and Shanghai lead and lead Shanghai - London ratio, are provided [72]. - Nickel and Stainless - steel: Charts related to nickel and stainless - steel arbitrage, such as nickel Shanghai - London ratio, nickel/stainless - steel ratio, Shanghai nickel inter - period spread, and nickel - nickel pig iron price difference, are presented [75][76]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Copper: Charts about copper options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are provided [78]. - Zinc: Charts related to zinc options, such as historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest, are presented [79][80]. - Aluminum: Charts about aluminum options, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume and open interest trend, and the ratio of call to put open interest trend, are provided [83][85].