氧化铝周报2026/02/11：给一个支点-20260213

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current supply - demand of the alumina market is in a delicate balance, with the AO/AL capacity ratio falling to the 2.0 range. In the short - term, there is no obvious contradiction, but the market is highly focused on a large northern factory, and the futures price will be disturbed by non - standard news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and consider lightly laying out long positions at low levels as a band strategy, paying attention to taking profits in time. - Under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in the industry in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly. However, the long - term oversupply situation in the alumina industry remains unchanged. The short - term price may be supported by the tightening of spot liquidity, but the space to boost prices through large - scale production cuts is increasingly limited. The long - term strategy is to sell short on rallies, while short - term opportunities to lay out long positions at low prices can be noted [4][16]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - The first batch of industry production cuts started from integrated factories. The inventory of a large northern factory is sufficient, and pre - holiday trader pick - up is normal, but the resumption time of specific production lines is yet to be determined. Some alumina plant startups have been postponed, with the earliest expected start from late February to early March [4]. - In the long - term, all new startups in Guangxi in the first quarter have been postponed. For example, Fangchenggang Zhongsilu is expected to start production at the end of February and the beginning of March, and Long'an Hetai New Materials' startup has been postponed. In the short - term, enterprises are gradually resuming maintenance, and there is still an expectation of capacity recovery [4][6]. - As of last Friday, the weekly alumina output was 1.814 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 tons or 0.87%. The operating capacity was 94.25 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800,000 tons mainly due to the maintenance of a large factory [12][13]. Demand Side - In the electrolytic aluminum sector, Liaoning Xiangyu Aluminum Industry (formerly Zhongwang) is expected to resume about 300,000 tons of idle capacity in mid - March and has started purchasing alumina raw materials. In the non - aluminum sector, due to environmental protection and other reasons for seasonal production cuts, alumina procurement has basically been completed [4]. Import and Export - Due to the stalemate in domestic spot prices, it is expected that China's alumina will remain in a net - import state in January. Since October, the domestic alumina market has returned to a net - import situation. The current import profit and loss is negative, at - 55.56 yuan/ton [4][41]. Inventory - As of last Thursday, the total alumina inventory (the sum of in - factory, in - transit, raw material, and port inventories) was 5.193 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 79,000 tons. Alumina in - factory inventory increased by 23,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 9 consecutive weeks, and electrolytic aluminum plant raw material inventory increased by 13,000 tons week - on - week, accumulating for 23 consecutive weeks. All three types of inventories are at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years [35]. Spot - Recently, spot prices have been firm and even increased slightly. The reasons are that as the Spring Festival approaches, traders have gradually taken holidays, reducing the number of participants in market tenders, and freight rates have risen. Although the spot is still in a surplus state, short - term liquidity tightening has led to a stalemate in prices [4]. Monthly Balance Sheet - Scenario 1: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory shuts down one production line, the fundamentals in March are relatively strong. - Scenario 2: If new capacities are put into production as planned in March, industry production cuts are not restored until April, and a northern factory resumes capacity operation, industry production cuts may still expand. Overall, under the assumption of no large - scale concentrated resumption of production in March, the spot price is expected to gradually stabilize and rise slightly [15][16]. Domestic and Overseas Spot - Domestic alumina spot transactions have stabilized before the Spring Festival due to the decreased participation of traders. The firm domestic price has attracted overseas spot for delivery. For example, some overseas alumina has been shipped to China for delivery [19][20]. Ore Price and Cost - As of this Monday, the average CIF price of Guinea bauxite was $60.5/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton, and the average CIF price of Australian imported ore was $59.5/ton, also a week - on - week decrease of $0.5/ton. Currently, the price negotiation of Guinea bauxite has dropped below $62/ton, and there is still room for the price to fall in the short term [26].