20260213申万期货品种策略日报-双焦（J&J）-20260213

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend in the night session yesterday, and the total position of coking coal remained basically flat compared with the previous period. As mines are gradually on holiday approaching the Spring Festival, the output of clean coal from mines decreased slightly last week. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal dropped from the high level but remained at the highest level in the same period. On the demand side, the hot metal output increased slightly this week, and the profitability rate of steel mills remained basically flat. In the last week before the festival, the downstream replenishment was basically completed, and the demand for steel products was at the "freezing point" of the whole year. Therefore, there is insufficient driving force for the current market, and the trend is volatile. After the festival, focus on the trend of hot metal output, the start - up situation of mines, and the policy trends on the import side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Price and Trading Volume - Price Changes: The closing prices of different contract months of coking coal and coke decreased compared with the previous two days, with declines ranging from -0.17% to -0.31%. For example, the 1 - month contract of coking coal decreased by 3.5 from 1377.0 to 1373.5, a decline of -0.25% [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of different contracts varied greatly, with the 5 - month contract having a trading volume of 528,830. The open interest also had different values, and the open interest of some contracts increased or decreased. For example, the open interest of a certain contract increased by 68 [2]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between different contract months changed. For example, the spread between the 9 - month and 1 - month contracts decreased by 431.5 to -83 [2]. Spot Price - Spot Price and Changes: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are provided, such as the Taiyuan wagon - board price of Mongolian 5 main coking coal is 1227. Some spot prices decreased, for example, the Linfen ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 100 [2]. Macro Policy Outlook - KPMG China Economic Research Institute Dean Cai Wei said that in 2026, it is expected that the macro - aggregate policy will maintain a steady expansion in scale, the fiscal deficit rate may remain at about 4%, and there is room for the monetary policy to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. Demand - side policies will emphasize "investing in people" to indirectly promote consumption and lower the financing threshold for private enterprises to support the stabilization of private investment; supply - side policies will accelerate the digital and intelligent transformation of traditional industries [2].