招商期货-期货研究报告：商品期货早班车-20260213

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is highly volatile. Gold is recommended to hold long - term positions, while silver requires cautious participation [1]. - For base metals, copper and tin suggest waiting for stable buying opportunities. Aluminum is expected to be range - bound, and alumina has upward potential [2][4]. - In the industrial silicon market, the fundamentals show a situation of both weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. - In the black industry, it is recommended to close positions in rebar, iron ore, and coking coal [6]. - In the agricultural products market, soybeans and corn futures are expected to show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are provided for each [7]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different supply - demand situations and trading suggestions, such as short - term weak fluctuations and medium - term improvement opportunities [9][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - Market Performance: Last night, precious metals fell rapidly. The Shanghai Gold 2604 contract barely held the 1100 - yuan mark, and the Shanghai Silver 2604 contract fell below the 20000 - yuan mark [1]. - Fundamentals: The U.S. Treasury Secretary's decision and concerns about AI investment led to drops in U.S. technology stocks and precious metals. There were changes in gold and silver inventories in various places [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in gold and be cautious with silver [1] Base Metals Copper - Market Performance: Copper prices weakened significantly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: U.S. stock market decline, concerns about AI, dollar strengthening, tight copper ore supply, and the Spring Festival off - peak season affecting demand [2]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for stable buying opportunities [2] Aluminum - Market Performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 0.21% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 400 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: High - load production in electrolytic aluminum plants and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate [2]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term [2] Alumina - Market Performance: The closing price of the alumina main contract decreased by 1.20% compared with the previous trading day, and the 0 - 3 month spread was - 206 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Some alumina plants entered the production - reduction and rotation maintenance stage, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to subsequent maintenance and shutdown situations as the price has upward potential [2] Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 8335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.42% [4]. - Fundamentals: Stable furnace - opening quantity and an overall start - up rate of 22.36%. Both the polysilicon and organic silicon industries are promoting anti - involution, with expected production declines [4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate between 8200 - 8800 yuan. Consider short - selling at high prices if the large - scale production reduction is short - term [4] Carbonate Lithium - Market Performance: LC2605 was 149,420 yuan/ton (- 840), a closing price decrease of 0.56% [4]. - Fundamentals: Changes in the prices of lithium - related products, production and inventory changes in the lithium salt industry, and expected production declines in downstream materials [4]. - Trading Strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate [4] Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main 05 contract closed at 49015 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a closing price decrease of 0.43% [4]. - Fundamentals: Stable weekly production and inventory, changes in the production schedules of downstream products, and positive factors in the demand side [4]. - Trading Strategy: The main contract is expected to weakly fluctuate between 45000 - 53000 yuan [4] Tin - Market Performance: Tin prices weakened significantly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Similar to copper, including U.S. stock market decline, dollar strengthening, and tight tin ore supply, along with a significant increase in domestic warehouse receipts [4]. - Trading Strategy: Wait for stable buying opportunities [4] Black Industry Rebar - Market Performance: The rebar main 2605 contract closed at 3056 yuan/ton, an increase of 11 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Decrease in building material apparent demand and production, weak demand expectations but limited supply, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Close positions. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [6] Iron Ore - Market Performance: The iron ore main 2605 contract closed at 759.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in iron ore inventory and molten iron production, neutral supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Close positions. The reference range for I05 is 750 - 780 yuan [6] Coking Coal - Market Performance: The coking coal main 2605 contract closed at 1121 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous night - session closing price [6]. - Fundamentals: Changes in molten iron production, weak supply - demand situation, and certain technical support for prices [6]. - Trading Strategy: Close positions. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1140 yuan [6] Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market Performance: CBOT soybeans are short - term strong, reflecting the expectation of good U.S. soybean exports [7]. - Fundamentals: South American bumper harvest expectation, strong U.S. soybean crushing and increasing export expectations, and an overall improving U.S. soybean supply - demand but a globally loosening supply - demand [7]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to China's purchase of U.S. soybeans and South American production realization; the domestic market is weaker and range - bound [7] Corn - Market Performance: Corn futures prices are strong, and spot prices are stable [7]. - Fundamentals: More than 60% of grain sales are completed, with limited sales pressure. However, the selling mentality in the Northeast has changed, and downstream enterprises are replenishing inventory at low prices [7]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and slightly strong due to policy disturbances [7] Oils and Fats - Market Performance: The Malaysian market is short - term weak [8]. - Fundamentals: A 14% month - on - month decrease in Malaysian palm oil production in January, a 11% month - on - month increase in exports, and a 7.7% month - on - month decrease in inventory at the end of January [8]. - Trading Strategy: Oils and fats are weak. Consider an anti - spread strategy and pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8] Cotton - Market Performance: ICE U.S. cotton futures prices continued to rebound, while international crude oil futures prices fell sharply [8]. - Fundamentals: A 3.2% year - on - year decrease in the expected U.S. cotton planting area in the 26/27 season, and changes in U.S. cotton export sales and domestic cotton supply - demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: Buy at low prices. The price range is 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton [8] Eggs - Market Performance: Egg futures prices rebounded, and spot prices stopped quoting [8]. - Fundamentals: A decrease in the number of laying hens in production, active chick replenishment, and expected seasonal decline in egg prices due to weakening demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Pigs - Market Performance: Pig futures prices are weak, and spot prices have a slight increase [8]. - Fundamentals: Expected rapid decline in slaughter volume after the minor New Year, large daily slaughter pressure this month, and a situation of strong supply and weak demand [8]. - Trading Strategy: The futures price is expected to be range - bound and weak [8] Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market Performance: The LLDPE main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The low - price spot in North China was 6530 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis was 200 points lower than the futures price [9]. - Fundamentals: Easing domestic supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [9]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider long - positions at low prices in the medium - term [9] PTA - Market Performance: PX CFR China price was 917 dollars/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5180 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 73 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: High - level supply of PX and PTA, and a situation of inventory accumulation [10]. - Trading Strategy: Maintain a long - position view on PX in the medium - term, and consider taking profits on PTA [10] PP - Market Performance: The PP main contract continued to fluctuate slightly. The PP spot price in East China was 6550 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis was 130 points lower than the futures price [10]. - Fundamentals: Increasing supply pressure and weakening downstream demand [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term weak fluctuations, and consider short - positions at high prices in the medium - term [10] MEG - Market Performance: The East China spot price was 3675 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of - 105 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: Increasing supply, inventory accumulation, and weakening downstream demand [10]. - Trading Strategy: Consider long - positions at appropriate times as the market may start to destock in March [10] Styrene - Market Performance: The styrene main contract fluctuated slightly. The East China spot market price was 7570 yuan/ton [10]. - Fundamentals: High - level pure benzene inventory, low - level styrene inventory, and weak supply - demand on both sides [10]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term wide - range fluctuations, and consider long - positions on styrene or related spread strategies in the medium - to - long - term [10]